Duke vs. Louisville Picks & Best Bets — ACC Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 10, 2021

The No. 10 seed Duke Blue Devils (12-11) and the No. 7 seed Louisville Cardinals (13-6) square off in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals Wednesday at Greensboro Coliseum, tipping off at 6:30 PM ET on ACCN. Duke is favored by 2 points. Both teams are looking to take another step toward a conference title and an automatic spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Blue Devils this season is 76.1 points, 4.1 more points than their implied total of 72 points in Wednesday’s game.
  • Duke has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (72) 17 times this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Cardinals (71.2) is 1.2 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (70).
  • Louisville has scored more than 70 points in 11 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Duke and Louisville Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 2+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Blue Devils 8-14 7-11 15-7
Cardinals 9-8-1 8-4-1 9-9

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Blue Devils have a 47% shooting percentage from the field, which is 4.9% higher than the 42.1% of shots the Cardinals’ opponents have knocked down.
  • Duke is 8-9 against the spread and 12-6 overall when it shoots better than 42.1% from the field.
  • Louisville has a 9-3-1 record against the spread and a 13-1 record overall when allowing its opponents to make more than 47% of their shots from the field.
  • The Cardinals’ 43.8% shooting percentage from the field this season is 2.5 percentage points lower than the Blue Devils have allowed to their opponents (46.3%).
  • This season, Louisville has a 4-2 record against the spread and a 6-0 record overall in games the team collectively shoots higher than 46.3% from the field.
  • Duke is 7-1 overall and 5-2 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot above 43.8% from the field.
  • The Blue Devils are hitting 35% of their three-point shots this season, 5% higher than the 30% the Cardinals allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Duke has an 8-6 record against the spread and a 12-3 record overall when the team knocks down more than 30% of its three-point shots.
  • Louisville is 9-3-1 against the spread and 12-2 overall when its opponents hit more than 35% of their shots from deep.
  • The Cardinals are hitting 31% of their shots from beyond the arc, which is 4.8 percentage points fewer than the 35.8% the Blue Devils’ are averaging on the season.
  • Louisville is 6-2 against the spread and 7-1 overall when shooting above 35.8% as a team from three-point range.
  • Duke has a 4-4 ATS record and a 6-2 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 31% from downtown.
  • The Blue Devils knock down 8.5 three-pointers per game this season, 3.2 more makes per game than the Cardinals allow (5.3).
  • The Blue Devils are 6-6 against the spread and 8-5 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Cardinals are 2-7 ATS and 5-5 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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