TCU vs. Kansas State Picks & Best Bets — Big 12 Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 10, 2021

The No. 8 seed TCU Horned Frogs (12-13) are favored by 4 points in their Big 12 Tournament matchup against the No. 9 seed Kansas State Wildcats (8-18) on Wednesday at Sprint Center, tipping off at 6:30 PM ET on ESPN. The winner will move one step closer to earning an automatic spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 2:17 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Horned Frogs (-4)

The DraftKings line for this game has the Horned Frogs favored by four, while the model predicts they’ll win by slightly more (4.7 points).

Pick OU:
Over (128.5)

In this game, the model projects a total (135.1 points) slightly higher than the DraftKings over/under (128.5 points).

Prediction: TCU 70, Kansas State 65

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Horned Frogs’ average implied point total this season is 6.5 more points than their implied total in Wednesday’s game (72.5 implied points on average compared to 66 implied points in this game).
  • TCU has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (66) 16 times this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Wildcats (72.3) is 10.3 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (62).
  • Kansas State has scored more than 62 points 12 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

TCU and Kansas State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 4+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Horned Frogs 10-14 0-6 12-12
Wildcats 9-16-1 1-4-1 10-16

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Horned Frogs make 44.1% of their shots from the field this season, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than the Wildcats have allowed to their opponents (45.8%).
  • In games TCU shoots better than 45.8% from the field, it is 4-5 against the spread and 6-4 overall.
  • Kansas State is 4-6-1 against the spread and 6-5 overall in games it allows its opponents to shoot higher than 44.1% from the field.
  • The Wildcats have shot at a 40.8% clip from the field this season, 4.2 percentage points less than the 45% shooting opponents of the Horned Frogs have averaged.
  • Kansas State has a 4-3 record against the spread and a 3-4 record overall in games when it shoots better than 45% from the field.
  • When TCU’s opponents hit better than 40.8% from the field, it is 3-4 against the spread and 7-1 overall.
  • The Horned Frogs’ 34.4% three-point shooting percentage this season is 2.1 percentage points lower than opponents of the Wildcats have shot from beyond the arc (36.5%).
  • TCU has a 6-5 record against the spread and a 6-5 record overall when the team knocks down more than 36.5% of its shots from three-point range.
  • Kansas State has put up a 5-8 straight-up record and gone 5-7-1 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot above 34.4% from beyond the arc.
  • The Wildcats are knocking down 29.6% of their shots from three-point range, which is 3.8 percentage points fewer than the 33.4% the Horned Frogs’ are averaging on the season.
  • Kansas State has a 5-4 ATS record and has gone 4-5 straight-up when hitting more than 33.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • TCU has an 8-2 straight-up record and a 5-4 ATS record this season when it knocks down more than 29.6% of its three-point shots.
  • The Horned Frogs are 5-3 against the spread and 6-3 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Wildcats are 5-9 ATS and 2-12 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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