Northwestern vs. Minnesota Picks & Best Bets — Big Ten Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 10, 2021

The No. 12 seed Northwestern Wildcats (9-14) play the No. 13 seed Minnesota Golden Gophers (13-14) as 2-point favorites in the Big Ten Tournament Wednesday at Lucas Oil Stadium, starting at 6:30 PM ET on BTN. Both teams will look to take one step closer to earning an automatic place in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 2:17 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Golden Gophers (+2)

While DraftKings has the Wildcats winning by two, the model has the Golden Gophers taking home the victory, with a considerable margin between the two spreads (4.1 points). Take the Golden Gophers.

Pick OU:
Over (141.5)

The model predicts a total 3.1 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.

Prediction: Minnesota 73, Northwestern 71

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Wildcats have an average implied point total of 75.6 this season, which is 3.6 points higher than their implied total in Wednesday’s game (72).
  • This season, Northwestern has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (72) 10 times.
  • The Golden Gophers’ average implied point total on the season (77.4 points) is 7.4 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (70 points).
  • Minnesota has put up more than 70 points in 17 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Northwestern and Minnesota Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 2+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Wildcats 9-9-1 1-2 9-10
Golden Gophers 9-14-1 4-5-1 12-12

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Wildcats make 43.9% of their shots from the field this season, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than the Golden Gophers have allowed to their opponents (44.4%).
  • In games when Northwestern shoots better than 44.4% from the field, it is 5-1 against the spread and 7-1 overall.
  • Minnesota is 8-4 against the spread and 11-3 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 43.9% from the field.
  • The Golden Gophers have shot at a 39.5% rate from the field this season, 3.5 percentage points fewer than the 43% shooting opponents of the Wildcats have averaged.
  • Minnesota has put together an 11-0 straight up record and an 8-1-1 record against the spread in games it shoots over 43% from the field.
  • This season, Northwestern has a 5-2 straight up record and a 3-1-1 record against the spread when it allows opponents to shoot greater than 39.5% from the field.
  • The Wildcats’ 35.6% three-point shooting percentage this season is just 0.1 percentage points higher than opponents of the Golden Gophers have shot from deep (35.5%).
  • Northwestern has a 7-2 record against the spread and an 8-3 record overall when the team connects on more than 35.5% of its shots from three-point range.
  • Minnesota has put up an 8-4-1 against the spread while going 11-2 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 35.6% from deep.
  • The Golden Gophers are knocking down 28.6% of their shots from three-point range, which is 4.8 percentage points fewer than the 33.4% the Wildcats’ are averaging on the season.
  • Minnesota is 3-2-1 ATS and 4-2 overall when the team hits more than 33.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • Northwestern is 4-0 ATS and 5-2 overall in games when shooting above 28.6% from deep.
  • The Wildcats’ 8.5 made three-pointers per game this season is 1.3 more made shots on average than the 7.2 per game the Golden Gophers give up.
  • Northwestern has gone 7-0-1 against the spread and 7-4 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Minnesota hits fewer threes than its opponents, it is 1-8 ATS and 4-7 straight up.

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