Fresno State vs. New Mexico Picks & Best Bets — MWC Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 10, 2021

The No. 6 seed Fresno State Bulldogs (11-11) are 8-point favorites in the MWC Tournament against the No. 11 seed New Mexico Lobos (6-15) on Wednesday at Thomas & Mack Center. The matchup tips at 7:00 PM ET, with both teams hoping to move one step closer to an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Lobos (+8)

The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (6.6 points) is a little bit less than the 8-point edge DraftKings gives to the Bulldogs, though the data still has them as the favorite.

Pick OU:
Over (125.5)

The model projects a total (132.6 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game (125.5 points). Take the over.

Prediction: Fresno State 70, New Mexico 63

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Bulldogs have an average implied point total of 72.1 this season, which is 5.1 points higher than their implied total in Wednesday’s game (67).
  • Fresno State is looking to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (67) for the 11th time this season.
  • The Lobos’ average implied point total on the season (72.9 points) is 13.9 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (59 points).
  • New Mexico has scored more than 59 points in 12 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Fresno State and New Mexico Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 8+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bulldogs 9-11 2-0 8-12
Lobos 6-12 0-1 7-11

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Bulldogs are shooting 42.2% from the field this season, 1.6 percentage points lower than the 43.8% the Lobos allow to opponents.
  • In games when Fresno State shoots better than 43.8% from the field, it is 7-2 overall and 6-2 against the spread.
  • New Mexico has put up a 4-2 record against the spread and a 5-4 record overall when its opponents knock down more than 42.2% of their shots from the field.
  • The Lobos’ 41.3% shooting percentage from the field this season is 1.9 percentage points lower than the Bulldogs have given up to their opponents (43.2%).
  • This season, New Mexico has a 4-4 record overall and a 1-4 record against the spread in games the team collectively shoots above 43.2% from the field.
  • Fresno State is 6-2 against the spread and 8-2 straight up in games when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 41.3% from the field.
  • The Bulldogs’ 32.2% three-point shooting percentage this season is only 1.7 percentage points lower than opponents of the Lobos have shot from deep (33.9%).
  • Fresno State has collected a 5-1 record against the spread and a 5-2 straight-up record in games this season when hitting more than 33.9% of its three-point attempts.
  • New Mexico has put up a 3-5 straight-up record and gone 3-4 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot over 32.2% from three-point distance.
  • The Lobos are making 26.3% of their shots from three-point range, which is 8.4 percentage points fewer than the 34.7% the Bulldogs’ are averaging on the season.
  • New Mexico has a 0-2 ATS record and is 1-2 straight-up in games when the team makes better than 34.7% of its three-point attempts.
  • Fresno State has a 3-2 straight-up record and a 2-3 ATS record when it has shot better than 26.3% from three-point distance.
  • The Bulldogs’ 6.7 made three-pointers per game this season is 2.3 more made shots on average than the 4.4 per game the Lobos give up.
  • Fresno State has gone 8-3 against the spread and 7-4 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When New Mexico hits fewer threes than its opponents, it is 4-9 ATS and 4-11 straight up.

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