Vanderbilt vs. Texas A&M Picks & Best Bets — SEC Tournament 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 10, 2021 - Last Updated on March 14, 2021

The No. 12 seed Vanderbilt Commodores (8-15) are 1.5-point favorites to win and move closer to a guaranteed berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket against the No. 13 seed Texas A&M Aggies (8-9) in the SEC Tournament Wednesday at Bridgestone Arena, tipping off at 7:00 PM ET on SECN.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Commodores (-1.5)

The DraftKings line for this matchup is within 0.1 points of the model. Stay away from this one.

Pick OU:
Over (133)

The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 4.4 points lower than the model projection.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 70, Texas A&M 68

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Commodores have an average implied point total of 77.4 this season, which is 10.4 points higher than their implied total in Wednesday’s game (67).
  • Vanderbilt is trying to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (67) for the 18th time this season.
  • The 70.9-point average implied total on the season for the Aggies is 4.9 more points than the team’s 66-point implied total in this matchup.
  • Texas A&M has scored more than this game’s implied total of 66 points nine times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Vanderbilt and Texas A&M Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 1.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Commodores 12-9-2 2-1-1 12-10-1
Aggies 6-10 4-2 4-12

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Commodores make 43.5% of their shots from the field this season, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than the Aggies have allowed to their opponents (45.2%).
  • In games when Vanderbilt shoots higher than 45.2% from the field, it is 6-0 overall and 6-0 against the spread.
  • Texas A&M has a 5-3 record against the spread and a 7-1 record overall when allowing its opponents to hit more than 43.5% of their shots from the field.
  • The Aggies’ 41.7% shooting percentage from the field this season is 4.6 percentage points lower than the Commodores have given up to their opponents (46.3%).
  • Texas A&M is 3-2 against the spread and 4-1 overall when it shoots higher than 46.3% from the field.
  • When opponents of Vanderbilt shoot over 41.7% from the field, it is 2-0-1 against the spread and 1-2 overall.
  • The Commodores shoot 35.4% from beyond the arc, 1.4% higher than the 34% the Aggies allow to opponents.
  • Vanderbilt has an 11-2 record against the spread and a 5-8 record overall when the team connects on more than 34% of its attempts from three-point range.
  • Texas A&M has compiled a 4-7 against the spread while going 6-5 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 35.4% from deep.
  • The Aggies shoot 30.1% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 4.6 percentage points lower than the Commodores have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (34.7%).
  • Texas A&M has a 3-2 ATS record and is 3-2 straight-up in games when the team makes more than 34.7% of its three-point attempts.
  • Vanderbilt is 3-1 ATS and 3-1 overall in games it shoots above 30.1% from deep.
  • The Commodores’ 9.2 made three-pointers per game this season is 2.7 more made shots on average than the 6.5 per game the Aggies give up.
  • When Vanderbilt makes more threes than its opponents, it is 8-5 against the spread and 6-7 overall. When Texas A&M is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 4-6 ATS and 7-4 straight up.

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