Penn State vs. Nebraska Picks & Best Bets — Big Ten Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 10, 2021

The No. 11 seed Penn State Nittany Lions (11-12) are favored by 6.5 points in the Big Ten Tournament against the No. 14 seed Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-20) on Wednesday at Lucas Oil Stadium, starting at 9:00 PM ET on BTN. The winner takes another step toward an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Nittany Lions (-6.5)

The model projects the Nittany Lions to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by slightly more points (7.2 to 6.5).

Pick OU:
Under (146.5)

In this game, the model projects a total (144.5 points) a little lower than the DraftKings over/under (146.5 points).

Prediction: Penn State 76, Nebraska 69

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Nittany Lions this season is 75.9 points, 1.1 fewer points than their implied total of 77 points in Wednesday’s game.
  • Penn State is looking to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (77) for the 10th time this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Cornhuskers (78.1) is 8.1 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (70).
  • Nebraska has totaled more than 70 points in 14 games on the season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Penn State and Nebraska Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 6.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Nittany Lions 11-10 1-2 9-12
Cornhuskers 11-13 2-1 11-13

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Nittany Lions have a 40.7% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.8% lower than the 42.5% of shots the Cornhuskers’ opponents have hit.
  • Penn State has put together a 6-3 record against the spread and a 6-5 straight-up record in games it shoots better than 42.5% from the field.
  • Nebraska’s record is 7-3 against the spread and 6-6 overall when it allows its opponents to hit more than 40.7% of their shots from the field.
  • The Cornhuskers are shooting 41.9% from the field, 4.9% lower than the 46.8% the Nittany Lions’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Nebraska has compiled a 5-0 record against the spread and a 4-3 straight up record in games it shoots above 46.8% from the field.
  • Penn State is 4-1 against the spread and 3-2 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot higher than 41.9% from the field.
  • The Nittany Lions are knocking down 34.2% of their three-point shots this season, 2.8% higher than the 31.4% the Cornhuskers allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Penn State has an 8-5 record against the spread and an 8-7 record overall when the team hits more than 31.4% of its three-point shots.
  • Nebraska is 7-8 against the spread and 6-11 overall when its opponents shoot better than 34.2% from deep.
  • The Cornhuskers’ three-point shooting percentage this season (33.7%) is just 0.4 percentage points lower than opponents of the Nittany Lions are averaging (34.1%).
  • Nebraska is 8-4 against the spread and 3-10 overall when shooting above 34.1% as a team from three-point range.
  • Penn State is 8-3 ATS and 5-7 overall in games it shoots above 33.7% from deep.
  • The Nittany Lions are 11-6 against the spread and 9-9 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Cornhuskers are 3-8 ATS and 1-11 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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