Oklahoma vs. Iowa State Picks & Best Bets — Big 12 Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 10, 2021

The No. 7 seed Oklahoma Sooners (14-9) are 11.5-point favorites in the Big 12 Tournament when they square off against the No. 10 seed Iowa State Cyclones (2-21) on Wednesday at Sprint Center, tipping off at 9:30 PM ET on ESPN. Both teams hope to move one step closer to an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 2:19 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Sooners (-11.5)

Both DraftKings and the model expect the Sooners to walk away with the victory, but the model spread (12.2) is 0.7 points further in their direction.

Pick OU:
Over (140.5)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (143.0 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (140.5 points).

Prediction: Oklahoma 78, Iowa State 65

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Sooners this season is 77 points, one more point than their implied total of 76 points in Wednesday’s game.
  • This season, Oklahoma has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (76) 12 times.
  • The 77.6-point average implied total on the season for the Cyclones is 12.6 more points than the team’s 65-point implied total in this matchup.
  • Iowa State has scored more than this game’s implied total of 65 points 13 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Oklahoma and Iowa State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 11.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Sooners 12-11 3-4 10-13
Cyclones 8-14-1 0-2 13-9-1

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Sooners make 43.9% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the Cyclones have allowed to their opponents (46.3%).
  • In games when Oklahoma shoots better than 46.3% from the field, it is 5-2 overall and 2-5 against the spread.
  • Iowa State is 5-4-1 against the spread and 1-9 overall when its opponents shoot better than 43.9% from the field.
  • The Cyclones have shot at a 41.9% rate from the field this season, 0.2 percentage points less than the 42.1% shooting opponents of the Sooners have averaged.
  • Iowa State has compiled a 5-7 record against the spread and a 2-10 straight up record in games it shoots better than 42.1% from the field.
  • Oklahoma is 7-4 against the spread and 9-2 straight up in games when allowing opponents to shoot greater than 41.9% from the field.
  • The Sooners are knocking down 33% of their three-point shots this season, 0.2% lower than the 33.2% the Cyclones allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Oklahoma has an 8-5 record against the spread and a 10-3 record overall when the team makes more than 33.2% of its three-point attempts.
  • Iowa State has put together a 2-8 straight-up record and gone 5-4-1 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot above 33% from downtown.
  • The Cyclones three-point shooting percentage this season (32.2%) is 3.5 percentage points lower than opponents of the Sooners are averaging (35.7%).
  • Iowa State has a 4-4 ATS record and is 1-7 straight-up when the team hits more than 35.7% of its three-point attempts.
  • Oklahoma has a 7-3 ATS record and a 7-3 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 32.2% from three-point distance.
  • The Sooners are 8-3 against the spread and 7-4 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Cyclones are 2-7-1 ATS and 0-10 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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