North Texas vs. Middle Tennessee Picks & Best Bets — C-USA Tournament 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on March 10, 2021

The No. 3 seed North Texas Mean Green (13-9) are favored by 16 points when they meet the No. 6 seed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (5-17) in the C-USA Tournament quarterfinals. The teams will look to take another step toward an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket on Wednesday at FORD CENTER AT THE STAR starting at 10:00 PM ET and airing on ESPN+.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 10, 2021, 2:19 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Blue Raiders (+16)

The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (14.7 points) is a little bit less than the 16-point edge DraftKings gives to the Mean Green, though the data still has them as the favorite.

Pick OU:
Over (126.5)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (131.9 points) slightly higher than the DraftKings over/under (126.5 points).

Prediction: North Texas 73, Middle Tennessee 59

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Mean Green this season is 73.2 points, 2.2 more points than their implied total of 71 points in Wednesday’s game.
  • So far this season, North Texas has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (71) 10 times.
  • The 72-point average implied total on the season for the Blue Raiders is 17 more points than the team’s 55-point implied total in this matchup.
  • Middle Tennessee has scored more than this game’s implied total of 55 points 15 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

North Texas and Middle Tennessee Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 16+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Mean Green 12-8 3-0 8-12
Blue Raiders 8-12 0-0 8-12

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Mean Green make 49.2% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.3 percentage points higher than the Blue Raiders have allowed to their opponents (46.9%).
  • North Texas is 10-2 against the spread and 12-1 overall when it shoots better than 46.9% from the field.
  • Middle Tennessee’s record is 6-8 against the spread and 4-11 overall when its opponents make more than 49.2% of their shots from the field.
  • The Blue Raiders have shot at a 38.9% clip from the field this season, 2.7 percentage points below the 41.6% shooting opponents of the Mean Green have averaged.
  • Middle Tennessee is 6-3 against the spread and 4-5 overall when shooting better than 41.6% from the field.
  • North Texas is 6-2 against the spread and 6-2 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot over 38.9% from the field.
  • The Mean Green shoot 38% from beyond the arc, 7% higher than the 31% the Blue Raiders allow to opponents.
  • North Texas has a 10-3 record against the spread and an 11-3 record overall when the team knocks down more than 31% of its shots from three-point range.
  • Middle Tennessee is 8-9 against the spread while putting up a 5-14 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 38% from three-point range.
  • The Blue Raiders are making 32.2% of their shots from three-point distance, which is only 1.3 percentage points fewer than the 33.5% the Mean Green’s opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Middle Tennessee is 4-5 against the spread and 2-7 overall when it shoots over 33.5% as a team from deep.
  • North Texas has a 6-3 ATS record and a 5-5 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 32.2% from three-point distance.
  • North Texas has gone 9-2 against the spread and 8-5 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Middle Tennessee hits fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 1-4 ATS and 0-5 straight up.

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