DFS Nascar @ Pocono (6/7)

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on June 7, 2015 - Last Updated on June 27, 2018

Welcome back for our third week of DFS NASCAR! This article will once again focus on the rules of fantasy NASCAR on DraftKings and breakdown what’s important to pay attention to. Following that, we will dive into strategy for this week. Our goal is to pick the drivers who we anticipate will perform strong, regardless of where they finish. Please direct any questions to @tbadger23 and I will be glad to clear up any confusion! Let’s get started!

 

Official Rules can be found here:

 

What’s important to know:

 

Final Position: This is the easy one. The higher your driver finishes, the more points you receive. A 1st  place finish receives 46 PTS, while 43rd will receive 1 PT.

 

Fastest Laps: Each time your driver runs the fastest lap, you will receive +0.5 PTS. Your driver, while unlikely, will have the potential to earn a maximum of (0.5) X (# of laps in the race) PTS.

 

Laps Led: For each lap your driver leads, you will receive +0.25 PTS. It’s as simple as that.

 

Pass Differential: This one will be a bit tricky. For each pass your driver makes, he/she will receive +0.25 PTS. In turn, for each time your driver loses a position, he/she will lose -0.25 PTS. This will NOT be scored on a lap-by-lap basis but on a pass-by-pass basis. So, if your driver goes back and forth battling for a position multiple times during a lap, the scoring WILL account for that. I don’t see this category having a major impact on which drivers you should select, however, it’s something we have to be aware of.

 

Place Differential: Place differential will be determined by the difference from where your driver starts, to where he/she finishes.  So, if your select driver starts 1st, he/she cannot have a positive place differential. (Example: if your driver qualifies 20th and finishes 10th, he/she will have receive +10 PTS for a positive 10 in the place differential category). Note: If your selected driver has to go to the back at the start of the race for any reason (backup car, engine change) he/she will still maintain the position he/she qualified, for fantasy purposes.

 

 Odds for the Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400 @ Pocono

 

KEVIN HARVICK 4-1
JIMMIE JOHNSON 5-1
KURT BUSCH 7-1
BRAD KESELOWSKI 10-1
JOEY LOGANO 10-1
MATT KENSETH 20-1
KYLE BUSCH 15-1
MARTIN TRUEX JR 15-1
JEFF GORDON 12-1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 8-1
DENNY HAMLIN 10-1
KASEY KAHNE 15-1
CARL EDWARDS 20-1
KYLE LARSON 20-1
JAMIE McMURRAY 40-1
RYAN NEWMAN 60-1
DAVID RAGAN 100-1
CLINT BOWYER 100-1
TONY STEWART 100-1
GREG BIFFLE 100-1
PAUL MENARD 100-1
AUSTIN DILLON 100-1
AJ ALLMENDINGER 300-1
ARIC ALMIROLA 300-1
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 500-1
DANICA PATRICK 500-1
CASEY MEARS 500-1
TREVOR BAYNE 500-1
SAM HORNISH JR 500-1
FIELD 500-1

 

Starting Lineup: 

 

  1. Kurt Busch ($12,500)
  2. Carl Edwards ($10,300)
  3. Martin Truex Jr. ($11,100)
  4. Jeff Gordon ($11,300)
  5. Kevin Harvick  ($14,000)
  6. Austin Dillon ($8,900)
  7. Brad Keselowski ($11,700)
  8. Denny Hamlin ($11,600)
  9. Jimmie Johnson ($13,400)
  10. Kyle Busch ($11,000)
  11. Joey Logano ($11,500)
  12. Kasey Kahne ($10,800)
  13. Ryan Newman ($9,500)
  14. Jamie McMurray ($9,700)
  15. Kyle Larson ($10,100)
  16. Paul Menard ($8,700)
  17. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,900)
  18. Casey Mears ($7,900)
  19. Matt Kenseth ($10,200)
  20. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($12.200)
  21. David Ragan ($8,800)
  22. Danica Patrick ($8,000)
  23. Clint Bowyer ($9,200)
  24. Sam Hornish Jr. ($7,800)
  25. Aric Almirola ($8,300)
  26. AJ Allmendinger ($8,200)
  27. Greg Biffle ($9,000)
  28. Tony Stewart ($9,100)
  29. Ty Dillon ($7,400)
  30. Justin Allgaier ($7,400)
  31. Michael Annett ($7,100)
  32. Landon Cassill ($7,200)
  33. Trevor Bayne ($7,700)
  34. Alex Bowman ($7,100)
  35. David Gilliland ($7,500)
  36. Brett Moffitt ($7,000)
  37. J.J. Yeley ($7,200)
  38. Josh Wise ($7,000)
  39. Cole Whitt ($7,300)
  40. Jeb Burton ($7,000)
  41. Matt DiBenedetto ($7,300)
  42. Travis Kvapil (N/A)
  43. Brendan Gaughan ($7,000)

 

 

From here, we will dive into the analysis for this week’s Coca Cola 600. Drivers will be broken down by:

 

(1) GREEN FLAG: must play in all formats

(2)  YELLOW FLAG: GPP plays, come with some risk)

(3) RED FLAG: avoid these drivers

(4) WHITE FLAG: My extreme value play for the week

(5) CHECKERED FLAG: My pick to win the race.

 

Green Flag

 

*Disclaimer: Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Jimmie Johnson are all excellent plays this week. I will focus on two drivers who would be great to use with one of these drivers in the “green flag” segment.*

Kyle Larson ($10,100): I promise for no bias, as my personal favorite driver makes the article for first time in 3 weeks. Larson is finally starting to heat up after a slow start to the season. Larson has 2 top 15s in his last 3 races and has had great success at Pocono despite having only 2 NSCS starts. In those two starts he’s averaged an 8th place finish. On top of that, he was 2nd fastest in final practice. I love Larson this week to pair with top-priced drivers.

 

Tony Stewart ($9,100): To fit top drivers this Sunday, we’re going to need value. Preferably value with high upside that we can count on to compliment our more expensive drivers. Tony Stewart has been downright awful this season, at least by the standards that we’ve created for him due to his past history of success. Stewart’s highest finish came at Bristol where he finished 6th. The next best is 14th at California. So why do I have Stewart in this spot? In 32 career races at Pocono, Stewart has managed a 12th place average finish, including a top 5 and a top 10 in his last 4 races here. He will start 28th when the green flag waves and I like his chances for a positive place differential and maybe even a top 10. That may be pushing it, but regardless: you’ll be hard pressed  to find a driver with the upside Stewart brings at his price point.

 

Yellow Flag

 

Carl Edwards ($10,300): Let’s not forget that the “yellow flag” segment only suggests caution in using the listed drivers and that is the case for Edwards this Sunday. Take away Edwards’s win at Charlotte 2 weeks ago and his average finish this season is a touch over 20th. Edwards does have 2 wins in 20 tries at Pocono but his last 4 races here have been brutal, with an average finish of just under 25th with no top 10s. If he can get out front early and lead laps, he’s got potential to score big, BUT I don’t see that happening and I will only be rostering Edwards sparsely in GPP’s this Sunday.

 

Clint Bowyer ($9,200): I’ve wavered back and forth between putting Bowyer “green” and Stewart “yellow” but decided on keeping Bowyer here. His lack of speed concerns me (27th in final practice) but he has had success here in the past with a 14th place average finish in 18 career starts including 8 top 10s. Bowyer should finish with a positive place differential but again, his lack of speed on the weekend brings concern so be cautious of that.

 

Red Flag

 

Austin Dillon ($8,900): Negative place differential alert! Austin Dillon will start 6th when the green flag drops on Sunday. In two career NSCS races here, Dillon has earned two top 20s but for fantasy purposes, that won’t cut it. He was 18th quickest in final practice and there’s just not enough upside to roster Dillon this weekend. I’d stay away from the 25-year old in all formats.

 

AJ Allmendinger ($8,200): Allmendinger has been a relatively popular play in the first two weeks of DFS NASCAR but I’m not going to be looking to him here. He was just 29th quickest in final practice and in 14 career starts he has just 1 top 10. I’ll be avoiding A.J. in all formats Sunday.

 

White Flag

 

Ty Dillon ($7,400): Ty is the younger brother of Austin and is in a great spot Sunday. He starts 29th and was able to post the 22nd best time in practice. Trust me here: Dillon has a ton of talent and will one day be more successful than his brother in the NSCS. He’s a former champion in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series and I’m calling a surprise top 10 this Sunday! Okay, maybe not that* good but look for 15th-20th notching him a nice positive place differential.

 

Checkered Flag:

 

And we’re here once again! This week I will be going with the Vegas favorite and fastest driver in final practice… Kevin Harvick! Wait and see 🙂

 

DraftKings is paying out over $160K in guaranteed contests this Sunday  including the $50K Victory Lane ($27 entry), and $25K High-Line ($300 entry). Also, check out the special Summer Games promotion! This Sunday that includes: $4K Quarter Arcade ($.25 entry), $60K Slingshot ($3 entry) and $20K Horsepower ($9 entry). Hurry and enter before they fill up!

 

I hope you all enjoyed the article this week. If you have any questions/feedback please tweet me @tbadger23. PLEASE enter NASCAR contests if you are able so we can keep seeing more contests with more guaranteed money each week! Thanks for reading and enjoy your Sunday!!

 

Best of luck,

 

-Tyler

 

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