SEC foes square off when the Tennessee Volunteers (16-7) host the Florida Gators (13-7) at Thompson-Boling Arena, beginning at 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, March 7, 2021. The Gators are 4.5-point underdogs in the game, the second matchup between the squads this season. The matchup’s over/under is set at 136.5.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 7, 2021, 2:19 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Computer Picks
Pick ATS:
Gators (+4.5)
The model and DraftKings both have the Volunteers taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly less (3.3 points). Lean towards taking the Gators.
Pick OU:
Over (136.5)
The model predicts a total 4.2 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.
Prediction: Tennessee 72, Florida 69
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The average implied total for the Volunteers this season is 73.9 points, 2.9 more points than their implied total of 71 points in Sunday’s game.
- Tennessee is looking to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (71) for the 12th time this season.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Gators (75.4) is 9.4 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (66).
- Florida has scored more than 66 points 18 times this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Tennessee and Florida Records ATS
| ATS Record | ATS Record Against 4.5+ Point Spread | Over/Under Record (O-U-P) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volunteers | 12-11 | 9-9 | 10-13 |
| Gators | 9-9 | 2-4 | 8-10 |
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- This season, the Volunteers have a 44.4% shooting percentage from the field, which is 2.3% higher than the 42.1% of shots the Gators’ opponents have knocked down.
- Tennessee has put together a 10-4 record against the spread and a 13-1 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 42.1% from the field.
- Florida is 8-3 against the spread and 12-1 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 44.4% from the field.
- The Gators have shot at a 47.2% clip from the field this season, seven percentage points higher than the 40.2% shooting opponents of the Volunteers have averaged.
- This season, Florida has compiled a 9-6 record against the spread and a 13-4 record overall in games the team shoots better than 40.2% collectively from the field.
- This season, Tennessee has a 12-8 record against the spread and a 15-5 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot higher than 47.2% from the field.
- The Volunteers shoot 34.6% from deep, 3.4% higher than the 31.2% the Gators allow to opponents.
- Tennessee has a 10-5 record against the spread and a 12-3 record overall when the team knocks down more than 31.2% of its shots from three-point range.
- Florida is 6-4 against the spread while putting up an 8-3 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 34.6% of their shots from three-point range.
- The Gators shoot 35.9% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 3.9 percentage points higher than the Volunteers have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (32%).
- Florida is 7-5 against the spread and 9-4 overall when shooting over 32% as a team from three-point range.
- Tennessee is 10-6 ATS and 12-4 overall in games it shoots above 35.9% from deep.
- Florida is 3-7 against the spread and 5-5 overall when it connects on more threes than its opponents, while Tennessee is 3-5 ATS and 5-3 straight up in games when it is out-shot from the three-point line.
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