Baylor vs Texas Tech: College Basketball Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – March 7, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 7, 2021 - Last Updated on March 12, 2021

The No. 18 Texas Tech Red Raiders (17-8) will attempt to continue a three-game win streak when they visit the No. 3 Baylor Bears (20-1) on Sunday, March 7, 2021 at Ferrell Center as 8-point underdogs. The contest airs at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN. The matchup’s over/under is 139.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 7, 2021, 2:20 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Red Raiders (+8)

The line for this game set by DraftKings and the model’s prediction are essentially the same (within 0.1 points of each other).

Pick OU:
Over (139)

The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 4.0 points lower than the model projection.

Prediction: Baylor 75, Texas Tech 68

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Bears this season is 80.6 points, 6.6 more points than their implied total of 74 points in Sunday’s game.
  • Baylor will attempt to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (74) for the 18th time this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Red Raiders (73.6) is 7.6 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (66).
  • This season, Texas Tech has scored more than this game’s implied total of 66 points 19 times.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Baylor and Texas Tech Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 8+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Bears 13-6-1 8-5-1 11-9
Red Raiders 9-15 6-6 11-13

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Bears have a 49.7% shooting percentage from the field, which is 9.4% higher than the 40.3% of shots the Red Raiders’ opponents have knocked down.
  • Baylor has a 20-0 straight-up record and a 13-5-1 record against the spread in games it shoots better than 40.3% from the field.
  • Texas Tech is 9-14 against the spread and 17-7 overall when its opponents shoot better than 49.7% from the field.
  • The Red Raiders’ 44.5% shooting percentage from the field this season is 1.4 percentage points higher than the Bears have allowed to their opponents (43.1%).
  • This season, Texas Tech has a 6-6 record against the spread and an 11-2 record overall in games the team collectively shoots above 43.1% from the field.
  • This season, Baylor has an 11-0 straight up record and a 10-1 record against the spread when it allows opponents to shoot higher than 44.5% from the field.
  • The Bears are hitting 41.9% of their three-point shots this season, 8.2% higher than the 33.7% the Red Raiders allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Baylor has collected a 17-0 straight-up record and a 12-3-1 record against the spread in games when the team makes more than 33.7% of its three-point attempts this season.
  • Texas Tech is 8-11 against the spread and 15-5 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 41.9% from deep.
  • The Red Raiders shoot 34.2% from beyond the arc this season. That’s only 1.5 percentage points higher than the Bears have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (32.7%).
  • Texas Tech has a 7-6 ATS record and is 10-4 straight-up in games when the team hits better than 32.7% of its three-point attempts.
  • Baylor has an 8-2 ATS record and a 10-1 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 34.2% from three-point distance.
  • The Bears connect on 10.4 three-pointers per game this season, 4.3 more makes per game than the Red Raiders allow (6.1).
  • The Bears are 10-4 against the spread and 14-1 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Red Raiders are 4-10 ATS and 9-5 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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