The No. 15 Texas Longhorns (16-7) hit the road in Big 12 play against the TCU Horned Frogs (12-12) on Sunday, March 7, 2021 at 7:00 PM ET. The Longhorns are favored by 7.5 points in the game, the second matchup between the squads this season. The matchup’s over/under is 140.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 7, 2021, 2:20 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Computer Picks
Pick ATS:
Horned Frogs (+7.5)
The spread for this game suggested by the model (6.3 points) is a little tighter than the 7.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Longhorns, though the data still has them as the favorite.
Pick OU:
Over (140)
DraftKings and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this contest, within 1.0 point of each other.
Prediction: Texas 74, TCU 67
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Longhorns have an average implied point total of 73.7 this season, which is 0.3 points lower than their implied total in Sunday’s game (74).
- Texas is looking to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (74) for the 14th time this season.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Horned Frogs (72.5) is 6.5 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (66).
- TCU has totaled more than 66 points in 16 games this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Texas and TCU Records ATS
| ATS Record | ATS Record Against 7.5+ Point Spread | Over/Under Record (O-U-P) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Longhorns | 9-14 | 4-5 | 14-9 |
| Horned Frogs | 10-13 | 0-3 | 11-12 |
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- This season, the Longhorns have a 45.2% shooting percentage from the field, which is 0.6% higher than the 44.6% of shots the Horned Frogs’ opponents have knocked down.
- Texas is 6-8 against the spread and 10-4 overall in games when it shoots higher than 44.6% from the field.
- TCU has a 5-6 record against the spread and an 8-4 record overall when its opponents hit more than 45.2% of their shots from the field.
- The Horned Frogs are shooting 44% from the field, 3.3% higher than the 40.7% the Longhorns’ opponents have shot this season.
- TCU has compiled a 7-5 record against the spread and an 8-5 record overall in games when it shoots better than 40.7% from the field.
- This season, Texas has a 9-8 record against the spread and a 12-5 record overall when its opponents shoot over 44% from the field.
- The Longhorns’ 35.1% three-point shooting percentage this season is 2.4 percentage points higher than opponents of the Horned Frogs have shot from beyond the arc (32.7%).
- Texas is 6-7 against the spread and 9-4 overall when it shoots better than 32.7% from distance.
- TCU has gone 9-5 overall and has a 6-7 record against the spread in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 35.1% from downtown.
- The Horned Frogs’ three-point shooting percentage this season (34.2%) is just 2.2 percentage points higher than opponents of the Longhorns are averaging (32%).
- TCU is 8-6 ATS and 7-7 overall when the team hits more than 32% of its three-point attempts.
- Texas is 8-7 ATS and 12-3 overall in games it shoots over 34.2% from deep.
- The Longhorns’ 9.3 made three-pointers per game this season is 2.5 more made shots on average than the 6.8 per game the Horned Frogs give up.
- Texas has gone 8-11 against the spread and 14-5 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When TCU hits fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 5-7 ATS and 5-7 straight up.
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