Florida State vs Notre Dame: College Basketball Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – March 6, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 6, 2021 - Last Updated on March 11, 2021

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-14) are 7-point underdogs as they look to turn around a four-game losing streak when they host the No. 11 Florida State Seminoles (15-4) on Saturday, March 6, 2021 at Purcell Pavilion. The matchup airs at 12:00 PM ET on ESPN2. The over/under in the matchup is set at 152.5.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 6, 2021, 2:17 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Pick Em

The model line and the DraftKings line are within 0.0 points of each other.

Pick OU:
Under (152.5)

The model predicts a total 5.0 points lower than the one set by DraftKings for this game.

Prediction: Florida State 77, Notre Dame 70

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Seminoles this season is 74 points, six fewer points than their implied total of 80 points in Saturday’s game.
  • So far this season, Florida State has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (80) 10 times.
  • The Fighting Irish’s average implied point total on the season (73.9 points) is 0.9 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (73 points).
  • Notre Dame has scored more than 73 points in 11 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Florida State and Notre Dame Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 7+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Seminoles 11-7 4-3 12-5-1
Fighting Irish 10-13 1-3 11-12

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Seminoles make 47.6% of their shots from the field this season, which is 3.3 percentage points higher than the Fighting Irish have allowed to their opponents (44.3%).
  • In games when Florida State shoots better than 44.3% from the field, it is 11-2 against the spread and 13-1 overall.
  • Notre Dame is 8-7 against the spread and 7-8 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 47.6% from the field.
  • The Fighting Irish’s 46.5% shooting percentage from the field this season is 6.7 percentage points higher than the Seminoles have given up to their opponents (39.8%).
  • This season, Notre Dame has a 9-8 record overall and a 10-7 record against the spread in games the team collectively shoots above 39.8% from the field.
  • This season, Florida State has a 15-3 straight up record and an 11-6 record against the spread when it allows opponents to shoot greater than 46.5% from the field.
  • The Seminoles’ 39.2% three-point shooting percentage this season is 2.5 percentage points higher than opponents of the Fighting Irish have shot from beyond the arc (36.7%).
  • Florida State has put together an 8-3 record against the spread and a 10-1 straight-up record in games this season when the team makes more than 36.7% of its three-point shots.
  • Notre Dame is 7-7 against the spread while putting together a 7-7 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 39.2% from three-point distance.
  • The Fighting Irish shoot 36.9% from three-point distance this season. That’s only 3.1 percentage points higher than the Seminoles have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (33.8%).
  • Notre Dame is 7-8 overall and 8-7 against the spread when it shoots better than 33.8% as a team from three-point range.
  • Florida State has a 5-5 ATS record and a 7-3 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 36.9% from three-point distance.
  • Notre Dame has gone 8-6 against the spread and 8-6 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Florida State makes fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 3-3 ATS and 6-1 straight up.

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