The No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes (18-7) are favored (-2) to stop a three-game losing streak when they host the No. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini (19-6) at 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, March 6, 2021 at Value City Arena. The game airs on ESPN. The matchup has a point total of 151.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 6, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Fighting Illini (+2)
The data strongly suggests betting on the Fighting Illini in this one. The model favors them while DraftKings has the Buckeyes favored and the difference between the two is 3.5 points.
In this matchup, the model projects a total (148.3 points) a little lower than the DraftKings over/under (151 points).
Prediction: Illinois 75, Ohio State 73
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Buckeyes’ average implied point total this season is 1.8 fewer points than their implied total in Saturday’s game (75.2 implied points on average compared to 77 implied points in this game).
- This season, Ohio State has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (77) 15 times.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Fighting Illini (78.2) is 3.2 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (75).
- Illinois has put up more than 75 points 18 times this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Ohio State and Illinois Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 2+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Buckeyes are shooting 46.3% from the field this season, 5.4 percentage points higher than the 40.9% the Fighting Illini allow to opponents.
- In games when Ohio State shoots better than 40.9% from the field, it is 16-4 overall and 12-6 against the spread.
- Illinois’ record is 17-2 overall and 14-4-1 against the spread when its opponents make more than 46.3% of their shots from the field.
- The Fighting Illini’s 50% shooting percentage from the field this season is 7.5 percentage points higher than the Buckeyes have given up to their opponents (42.5%).
- Illinois has compiled a 14-6-1 record against the spread and an 18-4 record overall in games when it shoots better than 42.5% from the field.
- Ohio State is 17-6 overall and 12-9 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot above 50% from the field.
- The Buckeyes shoot 36.4% from three-point range, 3.3% higher than the 33.1% the Fighting Illini allow to opponents.
- Ohio State is 13-2 overall and 11-3 against the spread when it shoots better than 33.1% from distance.
- Illinois has put up a 10-3 against the spread while going 12-1 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 36.4% from deep.
- The Fighting Illini shoot 38.4% from three-point distance this season. That’s four percentage points higher than the Buckeyes have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (34.4%).
- Illinois has an 11-5-1 ATS record and has gone 15-3 straight-up when making more than 34.4% of its three-point attempts.
- Ohio State has a 9-5 ATS record and an 11-4 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 38.4% from three-point range.
- The Buckeyes knock down 8.1 three-pointers per game this season, 1.1 more made shots on average than the 7 per game the Fighting Illini allow.
- When Ohio State makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 8-1 against the spread and 9-1 overall. When Illinois is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 5-4 ATS and 6-3 straight up.
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