USC vs UCLA: College Basketball Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – March 6, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 6, 2021 - Last Updated on March 11, 2021

The UCLA Bruins (17-7) are slight underdogs (by 2 points) to build on an 11-game home win streak when they host the USC Trojans (20-6) on Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 4:00 PM ET. The matchup has a point total of 135.5.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 6, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Bruins (+2)

The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (0.6 points) is a little tighter than the 2-point edge DraftKings gives to the Trojans, though the data still has them as the favorite.

Pick OU:
Over (135.5)

The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 4.5 points lower than the model projection.

Prediction: USC 71, UCLA 70

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Trojans have an average implied point total of 73.4 this season, which is 4.4 points higher than their implied total in Saturday’s game (69).
  • USC has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (69) 18 times this season.
  • The 72-point average implied total on the season for the Bruins is five more points than the team’s 67-point implied total in this matchup.
  • UCLA has put up more than 67 points 17 times on the season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

USC and UCLA Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 2+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Trojans 16-9 14-8 13-12
Bruins 10-13 6-10 14-9

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Trojans make 46.5% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than the Bruins have allowed to their opponents (43.7%).
  • USC is 14-2 against the spread and 16-0 overall when it shoots higher than 43.7% from the field.
  • UCLA’s record is 10-6 against the spread and 14-3 overall when it allows its opponents to hit more than 46.5% of their shots from the field.
  • The Bruins’ 46.1% shooting percentage from the field this season is 7.4 percentage points higher than the Trojans have allowed to their opponents (38.7%).
  • This season, UCLA has a 10-10 record against the spread and a 16-5 record overall in games the team collectively shoots over 38.7% from the field.
  • This season, USC has a 15-6 record against the spread and an 18-4 record overall when its opponents shoot greater than 46.1% from the field.
  • The Trojans are knocking down 34.7% of their three-point shots this season, 0.6% lower than the 35.3% the Bruins allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • USC is 10-2 against the spread and 11-1 overall when it shoots better than 35.3% from downtown.
  • UCLA has gone 7-3 overall and has a 6-3 record against the spread in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 34.7% from deep.
  • The Bruins’ three-point shooting percentage this season (37%) is just 3.6 percentage points higher than opponents of the Trojans are averaging (33.4%).
  • UCLA is 6-7 ATS and 12-2 overall when the team makes more than 33.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • USC is 13-2 overall and 11-3 ATS in games it shoots over 37% from deep.
  • UCLA is 5-2 against the spread and 7-1 overall when it hit more threes than its opponents, while USC is 5-6 ATS and 8-4 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.

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