Virginia vs Louisville: College Basketball Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – March 6, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 6, 2021 - Last Updated on March 11, 2021

The Louisville Cardinals (13-5) are only 2-point underdogs as they attempt to continue a three-game home winning streak when they host the No. 21 Virginia Cavaliers (16-6) on Saturday, March 6, 2021 at KFC Yum! Center. The contest airs at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN2. The matchup has an over/under of 121.5 points.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 6, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Cardinals (+2)

The data strongly suggests betting on the Cardinals in this one. The model favors them while DraftKings has the Cavaliers favored and the difference between the two is 3.4 points.

Pick OU:
Over (121.5)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (132.0 points) significantly higher than the DraftKings over/under (121.5 points). Bet on the over.

Prediction: Louisville 67, Virginia 65

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Cavaliers this season is 68.3 points, 6.3 more points than their implied total of 62 points in Saturday’s game.
  • Virginia will attempt to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (62) for the 15th time this season.
  • The Cardinals’ average implied point total on the season (71.8 points) is 11.8 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (60 points).
  • Louisville is trying to surpass its implied point total for this matchup (60) for the 15th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Virginia and Louisville Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 2+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Cavaliers 11-10 10-8 11-10
Cardinals 9-7-1 8-4-1 8-9

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Cavaliers make 48% of their shots from the field this season, which is 6.4 percentage points higher than the Cardinals have allowed to their opponents (41.6%).
  • Virginia has gone 14-3 overall and 10-6 against the spread when it shoots better than 41.6% from the field.
  • Louisville has put together a 9-3-1 record against the spread and a 13-1 record overall when its opponents hit more than 48% of their shots from the field.
  • The Cardinals have shot at a 44.2% clip from the field this season, 2.2 percentage points higher than the 42% shooting opponents of the Cavaliers have averaged.
  • Louisville has an 8-4-1 record against the spread and a 12-2 record overall in games when it shoots better than 42% from the field.
  • Virginia is 11-3 against the spread and 14-1 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot greater than 44.2% from the field.
  • The Cavaliers are hitting 39.1% of their three-point shots this season, 8.8% higher than the 30.3% the Cardinals allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Virginia is 13-4 overall and 9-7 against the spread when it shoots better than 30.3% from distance.
  • Louisville is 9-3-1 against the spread while putting together a 13-1 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 39.1% from beyond the arc.
  • The Cardinals are knocking down 30.6% of their shots from deep, which is only 3.3 percentage points fewer than the 33.9% the Cavaliers’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Louisville has a 6-3 ATS record and is 8-1 straight-up in games when the team makes better than 33.9% of its three-point attempts.
  • Virginia is 10-1 ATS and 12-0 overall in games it shoots above 30.6% from deep.
  • The Cavaliers hit 8.6 three-pointers per game this season, 3.3 more made shots on average than the 5.3 per game the Cardinals give up.
  • The Cavaliers are 9-4 against the spread and 11-2 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Cardinals are 2-7 ATS and 5-5 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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