The Incarnate Word Cardinals (8-12) are heavy, 21-point underdogs as they attempt to turn around a four-game losing streak when they visit the Abilene Christian Wildcats (20-4) on Saturday, March 6, 2021 at Moody Coliseum (Abilene). The matchup airs at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The matchup has an over/under of 131.5 points.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 6, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The DraftKings line for this matchup is within 0.4 points of the model. Stay away from this one.
In this matchup, the model projects a total (137.0 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (131.5 points).
Prediction: Abilene Christian 79, Incarnate Word 58
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Wildcats have an average implied point total of 75.3 this season, which is 0.7 points lower than their implied total in Saturday’s game (76).
- Abilene Christian has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (76) 15 times this season.
- The 73.2-point average implied total on the season for the Cardinals is 18.2 more points than the team’s 55-point implied total in this matchup.
- Incarnate Word will aim to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (55) for the 17th time this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 21+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- This season, the Wildcats have a 45.8% shooting percentage from the field, which is 0.5% lower than the 46.3% of shots the Cardinals’ opponents have hit.
- Abilene Christian has a 7-3 record against the spread and an 11-1 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 46.3% from the field.
- Incarnate Word is 5-2 against the spread and 6-3 overall when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 45.8% from the field.
- The Cardinals are shooting 45% from the field, 4.8% higher than the 40.2% the Wildcats’ opponents have shot this season.
- This season, Incarnate Word has a 7-6 record overall and a 5-3-1 record against the spread in games the team collectively shoots over 40.2% from the field.
- This season, Abilene Christian has a 15-3 straight up record and an 11-4 record against the spread when it allows opponents to shoot higher than 45% from the field.
- The Wildcats’ 34.3% three-point shooting percentage this season is 5.0 percentage points higher than opponents of the Cardinals have shot from beyond the arc (29.3%).
- Abilene Christian is 12-2 against the spread and 12-2 overall when it shoots better than 29.3% from distance.
- Incarnate Word has gone 7-8 overall and has a 6-5-1 record against the spread in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 34.3% from downtown.
- The Cardinals are hitting 37.9% of their shots from deep, which is 7.6 percentage points higher than the 30.3% the Wildcats’ are averaging on the season.
- Incarnate Word is 7-4-1 ATS and 7-8 overall when the team makes more than 30.3% of its three-point attempts.
- Abilene Christian has a 13-4 ATS record and a 15-4 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 37.9% from three-point distance.
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