The Sam Houston State Bearkats (19-7) are just 1-point favorites as they look to extend a 12-game home winning streak when they take on the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (15-5) on Saturday, March 6, 2021 at Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum. The contest airs at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The matchup has an over/under set at 148.5 points.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 6, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The model projects the Bearkats to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by slightly more points (3.1 to 1).
The DraftKings total for this game, 148.5 points, and the model’s projected total, 149.5 points, are only 1.0 point apart.
Prediction: Sam Houston State 76, SFA 73
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Bearkats have an average implied point total of 79.4 this season, which is 4.4 points higher than their implied total in Saturday’s game (75).
- Sam Houston State is aiming to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (75) for the 16th time this season.
- The 78.7-point average implied total on the season for the ‘Jacks is 5.7 more points than the team’s 73-point implied total in this matchup.
- SFA has scored more than 73 points 16 times this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Sam Houston State and SFA Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 1+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Bearkats make 45.8% of their shots from the field this season, which is one percentage point higher than the ‘Jacks have allowed to their opponents (44.8%).
- In games when Sam Houston State shoots better than 44.8% from the field, it is 8-1 against the spread and 13-1 overall.
- SFA’s record is 6-3 against the spread and 10-2 overall when its opponents make more than 45.8% of their shots from the field.
- The ‘Jacks are shooting 52.3% from the field, 10.5% higher than the 41.8% the Bearkats’ opponents have shot this season.
- This season, SFA has compiled a 7-7 record against the spread and a 15-3 record overall in games the team shoots higher than 41.8% collectively from the field.
- When opponents of Sam Houston State shoot greater than 52.3% from the field, it is 14-6 against the spread and 19-6 overall.
- The Bearkats are making 36% of their three-point shots this season, 1.3% higher than the 34.7% the ‘Jacks allow opponents to shoot from deep.
- Sam Houston State has collected a 9-0 record against the spread and a 12-1 straight-up record in games this season when connecting on more than 34.7% of its three-point attempts.
- SFA has put up a 6-5 against the spread while going 11-3 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 36% from deep.
- The ‘Jacks’ three-point shooting percentage this season (34.4%) is just 5.9 percentage points higher than opponents of the Bearkats are averaging (28.5%).
- SFA is 5-6 ATS and 13-2 overall when hitting more than 28.5% of its three-point attempts.
- Sam Houston State has a 12-3 ATS record and a 16-4 straight-up record this season when it connects on more than 34.4% of its three-point shots.
- The Bearkats hit 9.2 three-pointers per game this season, 4.2 more makes per game than the ‘Jacks allow (5).
- Sam Houston State is 10-3 against the spread and 16-1 overall when it makes more three-pointers than its opponents, while SFA is 3-6 ATS and 7-4 straight up in games when it is out-shot from the three-point line.
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