North Carolina vs Duke: College Basketball Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – March 6, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 6, 2021 - Last Updated on March 11, 2021

ACC foes square off when the North Carolina Tar Heels (15-9) host the Duke Blue Devils (11-10) at Dean E. Smith Center, beginning at 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, March 6, 2021. The Blue Devils are 3-point underdogs in the game, the second matchup between the squads this season. The matchup has an over/under of 148.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 6, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Tar Heels (-3)

Both DraftKings and the model expect the Tar Heels to walk away with the victory, but the model spread (3.6) is 0.6 points further in their direction.

Pick OU:
Under (148)

In this game, the model projects a total (145.9 points) a little lower than the DraftKings over/under (148 points).

Prediction: North Carolina 75, Duke 71

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Tar Heels’ average implied point total this season is 0.2 fewer points than their implied total in Saturday’s game (75.8 implied points on average compared to 76 implied points in this game).
  • North Carolina will attempt to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (76) for the 11th time this season.
  • The Blue Devils’ average implied point total on the season (75.8 points) is 2.8 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (73 points).
  • Duke has totaled more than 73 points in 15 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

North Carolina and Duke Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 3+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Tar Heels 10-13-1 8-6-1 10-14
Blue Devils 7-13 5-9 14-6

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Tar Heels make 43.7% of their shots from the field this season, which is 2.5 percentage points lower than the Blue Devils have allowed to their opponents (46.2%).
  • North Carolina has put together a 4-2-1 record against the spread and a 6-1 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 46.2% from the field.
  • Duke’s record is 4-2 against the spread and 6-1 overall when it allows its opponents to hit more than 43.7% of their shots from the field.
  • The Blue Devils’ 47% shooting percentage from the field this season is 4.7 percentage points higher than the Tar Heels have given up to their opponents (42.3%).
  • Duke is 11-6 overall and 7-9 against the spread when it knocks down more than 42.3% of its shots from the field.
  • This season, North Carolina has a 9-9-1 record against the spread and a 13-6 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot above 47% from the field.
  • The Tar Heels shoot 30.3% from deep, 6.2% lower than the 36.5% the Blue Devils allow to opponents.
  • North Carolina has put together a 3-3 straight-up record and a 2-4 record against the spread in games when the team connects on more than 36.5% of its three-point attempts this season.
  • Duke is 3-4 against the spread and 5-2 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 30.3% from deep.
  • The Blue Devils shoot 35.1% from three-point distance this season. That’s the same as opponents of the Tar Heels are averaging (35.1%).
  • Duke is 5-3 ATS and 7-2 overall when the team hits more than 35.1% of its three-point attempts.
  • North Carolina has an 8-3-1 ATS record and a 10-2 straight-up record in games this season when it hits more than 35.1% of its three-point shots.
  • The Tar Heels knock down 5.2 three-pointers per game this season, 3.1 fewer makes per game than the Blue Devils give up (8.3).
  • The Blue Devils are 5-6 against the spread and 7-5 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Tar Heels are 7-11-1 ATS and 11-8 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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