Nuggets vs Pacers: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – March 4, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 4, 2021 - Last Updated on March 8, 2021

A game after he put up 37 points in a 128-97 win over the Bucks, Nikola Jokic leads the Denver Nuggets (20-15) on the road against the Indiana Pacers (15-18) on Thursday, March 4, 2021. The Nuggets are favored by 4.5 points in the matchup, which airs at 8:00 PM ET on FS-IN. The point total is set at 226.5 for the matchup.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of March 4, 2021, 12:07 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Nuggets vs Pacers Betting Odds

Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Injury Report as of March 4

Nuggets:
Gary Harris: Out (Adductor),
JaMychal Green: Out (Shoulder),
R.J. Hampton: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Markus Howard: Out (Health and Safety Protocols),
Paul Millsap: Out (Knee),
Facundo Campazzo: Out (Health and Safety Protocols)

Pacers:
T.J. Warren: Out (Foot),
Caris LeVert: Out (Kidney)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Pacers (+4.5)
Total Pick Under (226.5)
Prediction Nuggets 114, Pacers 112

The Nuggets are favored by both DraftKings and the model, but the model has them winning by significantly less (4.5 to 1.5 points). Take the Pacers and the points.

DraftKings and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this game, within 0.3 points of each other.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Nuggets Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Nikola Jokic 35 27.3 11.1 8.6 1.6 0.7 1.6
Jamal Murray 33 21.7 4.2 4.6 1.1 0.3 2.7
Michael Porter Jr. 25 14.2 6.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 2.3
Will Barton 32 11.5 4.0 3.2 0.8 0.4 1.5
Monte Morris 34 10.6 2.2 3.4 0.7 0.3 1.2

Nuggets Player Props

  • Jokic’s rebounding prop total for the matchup is listed at 10.5 boards, 0.6 rebounds lower than his season average of 11.1.
  • Jamal Murray’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 3.5, 0.8 shots greater than his season average of 2.7.
  • Michael Porter Jr.’s blocks prop total for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.4 blocks higher than his season average of 1.1.

Pacers Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Malcolm Brogdon 33 21.5 4.7 6.2 1.2 0.2 2.5
Domantas Sabonis 34 21.1 11.2 5.9 0.9 0.6 0.9
Caris LeVert 12 18.5 4.3 6.0 1.1 0.5 1.8
Myles Turner 32 13.2 6.4 0.9 1.0 3.4 1.4
Doug McDermott 33 13.0 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.1 1.5

Pacers Player Props

  • Malcolm Brogdon’s points prop total for the contest is set at 18.5, 3.0 points less than his season average of 21.5.
  • T.J. McConnell’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 16.5, 0.6 less than his season average of 17.1.
  • Justin Holiday’s three pointers made prop total for the game is set at 2.5, equal to his season average of 2.5.
  • Myles Turner’s blocks prop over/under for the game is set at 2.5, 0.9 blocks lower than his season average of 3.4.

Shooting Trends

  • This season, the Nuggets have a 48.6% shooting percentage from the field, which is 2.1% higher than the 46.5% of shots the Pacers’ opponents have hit.
  • Denver is 11-8 against the spread and 13-6 overall when it shoots higher than 46.5% from the field.
  • Indiana has a 13-7 record against the spread and a 14-6 record overall when allowing its opponents to knock down more than 48.6% of their shots from the field.
  • The Pacers’ 47.1% shooting percentage from the field this season is 0.1 percentage points higher than the Nuggets have allowed to their opponents (47%).
  • This season, Indiana has a 13-7 record against the spread and a 14-6 record overall in games the team collectively shoots higher than 47% from the field.
  • Denver is 13-5 against the spread and 17-1 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot greater than 47.1% from the field.
  • The Nuggets shoot 38.6% from three-point range, 0.7% higher than the 37.9% the Pacers allow to opponents.
  • Denver has collected a 10-9 record against the spread and an 11-8 straight-up record in games this season when the team makes more than 37.9% of its three-point shots.
  • Indiana has put up a 10-5 against the spread while going 10-5 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 38.6% from deep.
  • The Pacers shoot 36.4% from three-point distance this season. That’s only 0.9 percentage points higher than the Nuggets have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (35.5%).
  • Indiana is 9-8 against the spread and 9-8 overall when shooting above 35.5% as a team from three-point range.
  • Denver has an 11-9 ATS record and a 15-5 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 36.4% from three-point range.
  • The Nuggets’ 13.3 made three-pointers per game this season is 1.1 more made shots on average than the 12.2 per game the Pacers give up.
  • Denver has gone 8-6 against the spread and 9-5 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Indiana makes fewer threes than its opponents, it is 7-11 ATS and 8-10 straight up.
  • The Pacers rank 20th in the NBA in made three-pointers, while the Nuggets allow the 13th-fewest made threes in the league.

Nuggets vs Pacers Stat Rankings

Nuggets Rank Nuggets AVG Pacers AVG Pacers Rank
5th 115.9 Points Scored 113 14th
9th 110.8 Points Allowed 112.6 20th
19th 43.8 Rebounds 42.2 26th
15th 10.2 Off. Rebounds 8.5 25th
11th 13.3 3pt Made 12.2 20th
7th 26.3 Assists 26.6 6th
7th 12.7 Turnovers 13.2 11th

Powered By Data Skrive using data from

PlayPicks Staff Avatar
Written by
PlayPicks Staff

PlayPicks staff has years of sports betting and DFS knowledge and we share all of that with you for free daily.

View all posts by PlayPicks Staff
Privacy Policy