The Miami Heat (17-18) are slight underdogs (by 2 points) to continue a three-game road winning streak when they visit the New Orleans Pelicans (15-20) on Thursday, March 4, 2021 at 8:30 PM ET. The matchup’s over/under is 227.
The betting insights in this article reflect data from William Hill sportsbook as of March 4, 2021, 11:55 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.
Pelicans vs Heat Betting Odds
Injury Report as of March 4
Avery Bradley: Out (Calf),
Jimmy Butler: Day To Day (Knee),
Gabe Vincent: Day To Day (Knee),
Bam Adebayo: Day To Day (Knee),
Meyers Leonard: Out For Season (Shoulder)
|Spread Pick||Pelicans (-2)|
|Total Pick||Under (227)|
|Prediction||Pelicans 113, Heat 111|
The model projects the Pelicans to win, just as William Hill does, but the model favors them by slightly more points (2.6 to 2).
The model predicts a total 3.3 points lower than the one set by William Hill for this game.
Pelicans Key Players
Pelicans Player Props
- Zion Williamson’s PRA prop total for the contest is set at 39.5, 3.3 greater than his season average of 36.2.
- Lonzo Ball’s PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 29.5, 5.4 higher than his season average of 24.1.
- Ball’s three pointers made prop total for the contest is set at 3.5, 0.5 shots higher than his season average of 3.0.
- Ball’s steals prop over/under for the game is set at 1.5, 0.2 steals greater than his season average of 1.3.
Heat Key Players
Heat Player Props
- Jimmy Butler’s assists prop over/under for the matchup is set at 6.5 assists, 1.3 less than his season average of 7.8.
- Bam Adebayo’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 32.5, 1.6 lower than his season average of 34.1.
- Duncan Robinson’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 3.5, 0.2 shots higher than his season average of 3.3.
- Butler’s steals prop total for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.4 steals less than his season average of 1.9.
- The Pelicans make 48.7% of their shots from the field this season, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the Heat have allowed to their opponents (44.8%).
- New Orleans has a 13-13-1 record against the spread and a 12-15 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 44.8% from the field.
- Miami is 12-15-1 against the spread and 16-12 overall when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 48.7% from the field.
- The Heat have shot at a 46.1% clip from the field this season, 1.4 percentage points below the 47.5% shooting opponents of the Pelicans have averaged.
- Miami has compiled an 8-5-1 record against the spread and a 10-4 straight up record in games it shoots above 47.5% from the field.
- This season, New Orleans has a 9-5 record against the spread and an 11-4 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot higher than 46.1% from the field.
- The Pelicans shoot 36.3% from beyond the arc, 0.2% lower than the 36.5% the Heat allow to opponents.
- New Orleans is 11-4-1 against the spread and 12-4 overall when it shoots better than 36.5% from distance.
- Miami is 10-9-1 against the spread while putting together an 11-9 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 36.3% from three-point distance.
- The Heat shoot 35.3% from three-point distance this season. That’s only 4.1 percentage points lower than the Pelicans have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (39.4%).
- Miami is 6-4-1 ATS and 8-3 overall when the team makes more than 39.4% of its three-point attempts.
- New Orleans has a 9-3-1 ATS record and an 11-2 straight-up record this season when it connects on more than 35.3% of its three-point shots.
- The Pelicans’ 11.2 made three-pointers per game this season is 1.7 fewer made shots on average than the 12.9 per game the Heat give up.
- When Miami makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 6-3 against the spread and 8-1 overall. When New Orleans is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 6-19-1 ATS and 8-19 straight up.
- The Heat are the 15th-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Pelicans allow the most makes from deep.
Pelicans vs Heat Stat Rankings
|Pelicans Rank||Pelicans AVG||Heat AVG||Heat Rank|
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