Pelicans vs Heat: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – March 4, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 4, 2021 - Last Updated on March 8, 2021

The Miami Heat (17-18) are slight underdogs (by 2 points) to continue a three-game road winning streak when they visit the New Orleans Pelicans (15-20) on Thursday, March 4, 2021 at 8:30 PM ET. The matchup’s over/under is 227.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from William Hill sportsbook as of March 4, 2021, 11:55 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Pelicans vs Heat Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of March 4

Pelicans: None

Heat:
Avery Bradley: Out (Calf),
Jimmy Butler: Day To Day (Knee),
Gabe Vincent: Day To Day (Knee),
Bam Adebayo: Day To Day (Knee),
Meyers Leonard: Out For Season (Shoulder)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Pelicans (-2)
Total Pick Under (227)
Prediction Pelicans 113, Heat 111

The model projects the Pelicans to win, just as William Hill does, but the model favors them by slightly more points (2.6 to 2).

The model predicts a total 3.3 points lower than the one set by William Hill for this game.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Pelicans Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Zion Williamson 34 25.6 7.2 3.4 0.9 0.7 0.2
Brandon Ingram 35 24.1 5.1 4.7 0.7 0.8 2.4
Lonzo Ball 32 14.7 4.2 5.2 1.3 0.6 3.0
Eric Bledsoe 34 12.7 3.6 3.8 0.8 0.3 2.0
Josh Hart 35 9.1 7.3 2.0 0.8 0.3 1.4

Pelicans Player Props

  • Zion Williamson’s PRA prop total for the contest is set at 39.5, 3.3 greater than his season average of 36.2.
  • Lonzo Ball’s PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 29.5, 5.4 higher than his season average of 24.1.
  • Ball’s three pointers made prop total for the contest is set at 3.5, 0.5 shots higher than his season average of 3.0.
  • Ball’s steals prop over/under for the game is set at 1.5, 0.2 steals greater than his season average of 1.3.

Heat Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Jimmy Butler 21 20.1 7.8 7.8 1.9 0.4 0.3
Bam Adebayo 33 19.2 9.5 5.4 0.9 1.0 0.1
Tyler Herro 24 16.4 5.9 3.7 0.6 0.4 2.1
Goran Dragic 21 14.9 3.0 4.9 0.6 0.1 1.6
Kendrick Nunn 27 14.3 3.3 2.8 1.2 0.3 2.1

Heat Player Props

  • Jimmy Butler’s assists prop over/under for the matchup is set at 6.5 assists, 1.3 less than his season average of 7.8.
  • Bam Adebayo’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 32.5, 1.6 lower than his season average of 34.1.
  • Duncan Robinson’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 3.5, 0.2 shots higher than his season average of 3.3.
  • Butler’s steals prop total for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.4 steals less than his season average of 1.9.

Shooting Trends

  • The Pelicans make 48.7% of their shots from the field this season, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the Heat have allowed to their opponents (44.8%).
  • New Orleans has a 13-13-1 record against the spread and a 12-15 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 44.8% from the field.
  • Miami is 12-15-1 against the spread and 16-12 overall when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 48.7% from the field.
  • The Heat have shot at a 46.1% clip from the field this season, 1.4 percentage points below the 47.5% shooting opponents of the Pelicans have averaged.
  • Miami has compiled an 8-5-1 record against the spread and a 10-4 straight up record in games it shoots above 47.5% from the field.
  • This season, New Orleans has a 9-5 record against the spread and an 11-4 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot higher than 46.1% from the field.
  • The Pelicans shoot 36.3% from beyond the arc, 0.2% lower than the 36.5% the Heat allow to opponents.
  • New Orleans is 11-4-1 against the spread and 12-4 overall when it shoots better than 36.5% from distance.
  • Miami is 10-9-1 against the spread while putting together an 11-9 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 36.3% from three-point distance.
  • The Heat shoot 35.3% from three-point distance this season. That’s only 4.1 percentage points lower than the Pelicans have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (39.4%).
  • Miami is 6-4-1 ATS and 8-3 overall when the team makes more than 39.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • New Orleans has a 9-3-1 ATS record and an 11-2 straight-up record this season when it connects on more than 35.3% of its three-point shots.
  • The Pelicans’ 11.2 made three-pointers per game this season is 1.7 fewer made shots on average than the 12.9 per game the Heat give up.
  • When Miami makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 6-3 against the spread and 8-1 overall. When New Orleans is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 6-19-1 ATS and 8-19 straight up.
  • The Heat are the 15th-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Pelicans allow the most makes from deep.

Pelicans vs Heat Stat Rankings

Pelicans Rank Pelicans AVG Heat AVG Heat Rank
4th 112.9 Points Scored 106.9 26th
27th 116.1 Points Allowed 108.8 5th
3rd 44.9 Rebounds 42.4 28th
1st 11.3 Off. Rebounds 7.6 29th
23rd 11.2 3pt Made 12.9 15th
12th 24.8 Assists 25.8 11th
13th 12.8 Turnovers 15 29th

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