ASUN opponents meet when the North Florida Ospreys (8-14) host the North Alabama Lions (11-10) at Swisher Gymnasium, tipping off at 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, March 4, 2021. The Lions are 3-point underdogs in the game, the third matchup between the squads this season. The point total for the matchup is set at 145.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 4, 2021, 2:15 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The spread for this game suggested by the model (0.5 points) is a little bit less than the 3-point edge DraftKings gives to the Ospreys, though the data still has them as the favorite.
In this matchup, the model projects a total (141.5 points) marginally lower than the DraftKings over/under (145 points).
Prediction: North Florida 71, North Alabama 70
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Ospreys’ average implied point total this season is 2.5 more points than their implied total in Thursday’s game (76.5 implied points on average compared to 74 implied points in this game).
- This season, North Florida has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (74) seven times.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Lions (73.1) is 2.1 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (71).
- North Alabama has put up more than 71 points in 11 games this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
North Florida and North Alabama Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 3+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Ospreys make 44.9% of their shots from the field this season, which is 3.3 percentage points higher than the Lions have allowed to their opponents (41.6%).
- North Florida has gone 8-7 overall and 8-5 against the spread when it shoots better than 41.6% from the field.
- North Alabama is 10-3 overall and 4-5 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot better than 44.9% from the field.
- The Lions have shot at a 42.1% clip from the field this season, 2.7 percentage points below the 44.8% shooting opponents of the Ospreys have averaged.
- This season, North Alabama has a 5-1 record overall and a 2-1 record against the spread in games the team collectively shoots higher than 44.8% from the field.
- This season, North Florida has a 4-2 record against the spread and a 5-2 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot above 42.1% from the field.
- The Ospreys’ 37.4% three-point shooting percentage this season is 2.6 percentage points higher than opponents of the Lions have shot from deep (34.8%).
- North Florida has assembled a 7-5 record against the spread and a 7-8 straight-up record in games this season when making more than 34.8% of its three-point attempts.
- North Alabama has gone 10-4 overall and has a 6-5 record against the spread in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 37.4% from deep.
- The Lions are hitting 32.9% of their shots from beyond the arc, which is just 0.8 percentage points fewer than the 33.7% the Ospreys’ opponents are averaging on the season.
- North Alabama is 3-4 against the spread and 5-4 overall when it shoots over 33.7% as a team from deep.
- North Florida has a 4-5 straight-up record and a 3-4 ATS record when it has shot better than 32.9% from three-point range.
- The Ospreys connect on 10.2 three-pointers per game this season, 2.2 more made shots on average than the 8 per game the Lions give up.
- North Florida is 8-6 against the spread and 5-12 overall when it makes more three-pointers than its opponents, while North Alabama is 2-8 ATS and 3-8 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.
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