Daron Russell leads the Rhode Island Rams (10-14) into a matchup with the Dayton Flyers (13-8) after putting up 27 points in an 86-75 loss to Duquesne. The Rams are 4.5-point underdogs in the game on Thursday, March 4, 2021, which starts at 3:30 PM ET on NBCS. The matchup has a point total of 136.5.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 4, 2021, 2:15 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The Flyers are favored by both DraftKings and the model, but the model has them winning by significantly less (4.5 to 0.9 points). Take the Rams and the points.
In this matchup, the model projects a total (139.4 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (136.5 points).
Prediction: Dayton 70, Rhode Island 69
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Flyers have an average implied point total of 70.3 this season, which is 0.7 points lower than their implied total in Thursday’s game (71).
- Dayton is trying to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (71) for the ninth time this season.
- The Rams’ average implied point total on the season (73.3 points) is 7.3 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (66 points).
- Rhode Island has scored more than 66 points 14 times on the season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Dayton and Rhode Island Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 4.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Flyers make 47.8% of their shots from the field this season, which is 6.5 percentage points higher than the Rams have allowed to their opponents (41.3%).
- In games when Dayton shoots better than 41.3% from the field, it is 11-9 against the spread and 13-7 overall.
- Rhode Island is 10-10 against the spread and 10-11 overall when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 47.8% from the field.
- The Rams’ 44% shooting percentage from the field this season is 2.5 percentage points higher than the Flyers have allowed to their opponents (41.5%).
- Rhode Island is 9-7 against the spread and 8-9 overall when shooting higher than 41.5% from the field.
- Dayton is 8-4 against the spread and 9-3 straight up in games when allowing opponents to shoot greater than 44% from the field.
- The Flyers shoot 36.5% from three-point range, 4.3% higher than the 32.2% the Rams allow to opponents.
- Dayton is 9-4 against the spread and 11-2 overall when it shoots better than 32.2% from distance.
- Rhode Island has gone 9-8 overall and has a 10-7 record against the spread in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 36.5% from downtown.
- The Rams’ three-point shooting percentage this season (30.9%) is only 0.4 percentage points lower than opponents of the Flyers are averaging (31.3%).
- Rhode Island is 4-6 overall and 6-3 against the spread when it shoots over 31.3% as a team from three-point distance.
- Dayton has a 9-5 ATS record and a 10-4 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 30.9% from three-point distance.
- The Flyers connect on 7.8 three-pointers per game this season, 2.2 more made shots on average than the 5.6 per game the Rams allow.
- When Dayton makes more threes than its opponents, it is 9-3 against the spread and 11-1 overall. When Rhode Island is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 4-11 ATS and 5-10 straight up.
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