Maxwell Evans leads the Vanderbilt Commodores (7-14) against the Cincinnati Bearcats (9-9) after scoring 20 points in an 83-68 loss to LSU. The Bearcats are 6.5-point favorites in the game on Thursday, March 4, 2021, which tips at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The matchup has a point total of 146.5.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 4, 2021, 2:16 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (4.7 points) is a little tighter than the 6.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Bearcats, though the data still has them as the favorite.
The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 2.6 points higher than the model projection.
Prediction: Cincinnati 74, Vanderbilt 70
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The average implied total for the Bearcats this season is 71.2 points, 5.8 fewer points than their implied total of 77 points in Thursday’s game.
- Cincinnati has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (77) two times.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Commodores (77.7) is 7.7 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (70).
- Vanderbilt has scored more than 70 points 14 times this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Cincinnati and Vanderbilt Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 6.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- This season, the Bearcats have a 42.7% shooting percentage from the field, which is 3.8% lower than the 46.5% of shots the Commodores’ have knocked down.
- Cincinnati has a 3-1 record against the spread and a 4-0 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 46.5% from the field.
- Vanderbilt has a 6-0-2 record against the spread and a 4-4 record overall when allowing its opponents to hit more than 42.7% of their shots from the field.
- The Commodores are shooting 43.4% from the field, 0.3% lower than the 43.7% the Bearcats’ opponents have shot this season.
- Vanderbilt has put together a 6-1 record against the spread and a 5-2 record overall in games when it shoots above 43.7% from the field.
- This season, Cincinnati has a 4-4 record against the spread and a 7-2 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot above 43.4% from the field.
- The Bearcats are making 30.2% of their three-point shots this season, 4.3% lower than the 34.5% the Commodores allow opponents to shoot from deep.
- Cincinnati is 4-2 overall and 3-2 against the spread when it shoots better than 34.5% from distance.
- Vanderbilt has put up a 3-1 straight-up record and gone 3-1 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot over 30.2% from three-point distance.
- The Commodores shoot 35.5% from three-point distance this season. That’s only 2.9 percentage points higher than the Bearcats have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (32.6%).
- Vanderbilt is 5-8 straight-up and has a 10-2-1 ATS record when the team hits more than 32.6% of its three-point attempts.
- Cincinnati is 3-6 ATS and 6-5 overall in games it shoots above 35.5% from deep.
- The Bearcats knock down 6.8 three-pointers per game this season, 2.6 fewer makes per game than the Commodores give up (9.4).
- The Commodores are 8-4 against the spread and 6-6 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Bearcats are 1-5 ATS and 3-3 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.
Powered By Data Skrive using data from