Oklahoma vs Texas: College Basketball Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – March 4, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 4, 2021 - Last Updated on March 7, 2021

The No. 16 Oklahoma Sooners (14-8) will look to stop a three-game losing streak when they host the No. 15 Texas Longhorns (15-7) on Thursday, March 4, 2021 at Lloyd Noble Center as just 2-point favorites. The matchup airs at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN. The matchup’s point total is set at 142.5.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 4, 2021, 2:16 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Longhorns (+2)

The line for this game set by DraftKings and the model’s prediction are essentially the same (within 0.4 points of each other).

Pick OU:
Over (142.5)

In this matchup, the model projects a total (144.2 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (142.5 points).

Prediction: Oklahoma 73, Texas 71

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Sooners’ average implied point total this season is 5.2 more points than their implied total in Thursday’s game (77.2 implied points on average compared to 72 implied points in this game).
  • Oklahoma has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (72) 15 times.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Longhorns (73.7) is 3.7 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (70).
  • Texas has put up more than 70 points 16 times on the season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Oklahoma and Texas Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 2+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Sooners 12-10 4-9 10-12
Longhorns 8-14 4-10 14-8

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Sooners have a 44.2% shooting percentage from the field, which is 3.4% higher than the 40.8% of shots the Longhorns’ opponents have knocked down.
  • Oklahoma has a 12-2 straight-up record and an 8-6 record against the spread in games it shoots higher than 40.8% from the field.
  • Texas has an 8-8 record against the spread and an 11-5 record overall when its opponents hit more than 44.2% of their shots from the field.
  • The Longhorns’ 45.1% shooting percentage from the field this season is 3.2 percentage points higher than the Sooners have allowed to their opponents (41.9%).
  • Texas is 11-4 overall and 6-9 against the spread when it shoots higher than 41.9% from the field.
  • This season, Oklahoma has an 8-6 record against the spread and a 12-2 record overall when its opponents shoot higher than 45.1% from the field.
  • The Sooners’ 33.3% three-point shooting percentage this season is only 1.1 percentage points higher than opponents of the Longhorns have shot from beyond the arc (32.2%).
  • Oklahoma has assembled a 10-3 straight-up record and an 8-5 record against the spread in games when the team knocks down more than 32.2% of its three-point shots this season.
  • Texas is 7-7 against the spread while putting up an 11-3 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 33.3% of their shots from three-point range.
  • The Longhorns shoot 34.9% from three-point distance this season. That’s -0.6 percentage points higher than the Sooners have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (35.5%).
  • Texas is 6-3 straight-up and has a 4-5 ATS record when the team hits more than 35.5% of its three-point attempts.
  • Oklahoma is 7-3 overall and 7-3 ATS in games it shoots over 34.9% from deep.
  • The Sooners connect on 8.1 three-pointers per game this season, 1.2 fewer makes per game than the Longhorns allow (9.3).
  • Texas is 7-11 against the spread and 13-5 overall when it connects on more threes than its opponents, while Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS and 5-3 straight up in games when it is out-shot from deep.

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