The Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-18) are heavy underdogs (-16.5) as they try to break a nine-game road slide when they visit the No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes (18-7) on Thursday, March 4, 2021 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The contest airs at 9:00 PM ET on BTN. The point total in the matchup is set at 152.5.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 4, 2021, 2:16 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (15.7 points) is a little bit less than the 16.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Hawkeyes, though the data still has them as the favorite.
The DraftKings point total for this matchup is just 3.2 points higher than the model projection.
Prediction: Iowa 82, Nebraska 67
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Hawkeyes have an average implied point total of 82.8 this season, which is 2.2 points lower than their implied total in Thursday’s game (85).
- Iowa has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (85) 14 times.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Cornhuskers (77.9) is 9.9 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (68).
- This season, Nebraska has scored more than this game’s implied total of 68 points 14 times.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Iowa and Nebraska Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 16.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- This season, the Hawkeyes have a 47% shooting percentage from the field, which is 5.4% higher than the 41.6% of shots the Cornhuskers’ opponents have made.
- When Iowa shoots higher than 41.6% from the field, it is 12-6 against the spread and 18-3 overall.
- Nebraska has a 7-7 record against the spread and a 6-10 record overall when its opponents knock down more than 47% of their shots from the field.
- The Cornhuskers have shot at a 42.1% rate from the field this season, 0.7 percentage points greater than the 41.4% shooting opponents of the Hawkeyes have averaged.
- Nebraska has compiled a 7-3 record against the spread and a 5-7 straight up record in games it shoots higher than 41.4% from the field.
- This season, Iowa has a 10-1 straight up record and a 6-4 record against the spread when it allows opponents to shoot over 42.1% from the field.
- The Hawkeyes are making 40% of their three-point shots this season, 9.4% higher than the 30.6% the Cornhuskers allow opponents to shoot from deep.
- Iowa is 12-7 against the spread and 17-5 overall when it shoots better than 30.6% from deep.
- Nebraska is 10-11 against the spread and 6-17 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 40% from deep.
- The Cornhuskers shoot 33.3% from three-point distance this season. That’s -1.6 percentage points higher than the Hawkeyes have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (34.9%).
- Nebraska has a 7-3 ATS record and is 3-8 straight-up in games when the team hits better than 34.9% of its three-point attempts.
- Iowa has a 7-3 ATS record and an 11-1 straight-up record this season when it hits more than 33.3% of its three-point shots.
- The Hawkeyes hit 10 three-pointers per game this season, 1.9 more makes per game than the Cornhuskers give up (8.1).
- Iowa has gone 8-3 against the spread and 11-2 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Nebraska hits fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 3-7 ATS and 1-10 straight up.
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