Penn State vs Minnesota: College Basketball Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – March 3, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 3, 2021 - Last Updated on March 6, 2021

A game after he exploded for 41 points in a 78-74 loss to Nebraska, Marcus Carr leads the Minnesota Golden Gophers (13-12) on the road against the Penn State Nittany Lions (9-12) on Wednesday, March 3, 2021. The Golden Gophers are underdogs by 4.5 points in the matchup, which airs at 7:00 PM ET on BTN. The over/under is set at 148 in the matchup.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 3, 2021, 2:15 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Golden Gophers (+4.5)

The spread for this game suggested by the model (3.2 points) is a little bit less than the 4.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Nittany Lions, though the data still has them as the favorite.

Pick OU:
Under (148)

The model predicts a total 1.2 points lower than the one set by DraftKings for this game.

Prediction: Penn State 75, Minnesota 72

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Nittany Lions have an average implied point total of 76.1 this season, which is 0.1 points higher than their implied total in Wednesday’s game (76).
  • Penn State is attempting to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (76) for the ninth time this season.
  • The average implied point total on the season for the Golden Gophers (77.4) is 5.4 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (72).
  • Minnesota has totaled more than 72 points in 14 games on the season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Penn State and Minnesota Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 4.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Nittany Lions 9-10 1-4 8-11
Golden Gophers 9-13-1 3-4-1 11-12

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Nittany Lions are shooting 40.7% from the field this season, 3.7 percentage points lower than the 44.4% the Golden Gophers allow to opponents.
  • Penn State has gone 4-4 overall and 3-3 against the spread when it shoots higher than 44.4% from the field.
  • Minnesota has a 6-1 record against the spread and a 7-0 record overall when allowing its opponents to make more than 40.7% of their shots from the field.
  • The Golden Gophers have shot at a 40% clip from the field this season, 7.3 percentage points below the 47.3% shooting opponents of the Nittany Lions have averaged.
  • Minnesota is 3-0 overall and 3-0 against the spread when it hits more than 47.3% of its attempts from the field.
  • Penn State is 2-0 overall and 2-0 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot over 40% from the field.
  • The Nittany Lions’ 33.9% three-point shooting percentage this season is only 1.1 percentage points lower than opponents of the Golden Gophers have shot from deep (35%).
  • Penn State is 4-4 against the spread and 3-6 overall when it shoots better than 35% from deep.
  • Minnesota has put together a 9-1 straight-up record and gone 8-2 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot over 33.9% from three-point distance.
  • The Golden Gophers three-point shooting percentage this season (28.9%) is 5.3 percentage points lower than opponents of the Nittany Lions are averaging (34.2%).
  • Minnesota has a 3-2-1 ATS record and is 4-2 straight-up when the team makes more than 34.2% of its three-point attempts.
  • Penn State has a 4-1 ATS record and a 3-2 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 28.9% from deep.
  • The Nittany Lions connect on 9 three-pointers per game this season, 1.7 more makes per game than the Golden Gophers give up (7.3).
  • The Nittany Lions are 9-6 against the spread and 7-9 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Golden Gophers are 1-7 ATS and 4-5 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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