Mavericks vs Thunder: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – March 3, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 3, 2021 - Last Updated on March 6, 2021

Luka Doncic leads the Dallas Mavericks (17-16) into a matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder (14-20) after putting up 33 points in a 130-124 win over the Magic. The Thunder are 6-point underdogs in the matchup on Wednesday, March 3, 2021, which tips off at 8:30 PM ET on FS-OK. The matchup’s point total is 223.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from FanDuel sportsbook as of March 3, 2021, 1:07 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Mavericks vs Thunder Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of March 3

Mavericks:
Willie Cauley-Stein: Day To Day (Thumb)

Thunder:
Trevor Ariza: Out (Personal),
Hamidou Diallo: Day To Day (Groin),
Darius Miller: Day To Day (Illness),
George Hill: Out (Thumb)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Mavericks (-6)
Total Pick Under (223.5)
Prediction Mavericks 115, Thunder 108

The model projects the Mavericks to win, just as FanDuel does, but the model favors them by a small margin more (7.0 to 6).

The model’s predicted total (222.5 points) and the FanDuel set total (223.5 points) are virtually the same for this contest.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Mavericks Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Luka Doncic 32 28.6 8.4 9.0 1.0 0.7 2.7
Kristaps Porzingis 19 20.2 8.1 1.4 0.4 1.7 2.2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 32 16.3 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.2 3.0
Jalen Brunson 29 12.8 3.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 1.3
Josh Richardson 24 12.7 3.2 2.6 0.8 0.3 1.5

Mavericks Player Props

  • Doncic’s rebounding prop over/under for the game is posted at 8.5 rebounds, 0.1 rebounds greater than his season average of 8.4.
  • Tim Hardaway Jr.’s three pointers made prop total for the game is set at 2.5, 0.5 shots lower than his season average of 3.0.
  • Kristaps Porzingis’ blocks prop over/under for the game is set at 1.5, 0.2 blocks lower than his season average of 1.7.

Thunder Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 28 23.1 5.3 6.3 0.8 0.6 2.1
Al Horford 23 14.2 6.7 3.6 0.9 0.8 2.0
Luguentz Dort 33 12.5 3.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 1.9
Hamidou Diallo 32 11.9 5.1 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.4
Darius Bazley 34 11.9 7.4 1.6 0.5 0.6 1.5

Thunder Player Props

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 28.5, 6.2 less than his season average of 34.7.
  • Darius Bazley’s PRA prop over/under for the game is set at 22.5, 1.6 higher than his season average of 20.9.
  • Gilgeous-Alexander’s three pointers made prop total for the game is set at 1.5, 0.6 shots lower than his season average of 2.1.
  • Theo Maledon’s steals prop total for the game is set at 1.5, 0.5 steals higher than his season average of 1.0.

Shooting Trends

  • The Mavericks are shooting 46.7% from the field this season, 0.4 percentage points higher than the 46.3% the Thunder allow to opponents.
  • Dallas is 10-7 against the spread and 12-5 overall when it shoots better than 46.3% from the field.
  • Oklahoma City’s record is 12-6 against the spread and 9-9 overall when its opponents make more than 46.7% of their shots from the field.
  • The Thunder have shot at a 45% clip from the field this season, 1.7 percentage points less than the 46.7% shooting opponents of the Mavericks have averaged.
  • Oklahoma City has compiled a 6-2-1 record against the spread and a 6-3 straight up record in games it shoots over 46.7% from the field.
  • Dallas is 10-2 against the spread and 9-3 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot above 45% from the field.
  • The Mavericks shoot 35.4% from three-point range, 0.2% higher than the 35.2% the Thunder allow to opponents.
  • Dallas is 9-7 against the spread and 12-4 overall when it shoots better than 35.2% from distance.
  • Oklahoma City is 14-5-1 against the spread while putting up an 11-9 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 35.4% from three-point range.
  • The Thunder’s three-point shooting percentage this season (34.4%) is just 2.8 percentage points lower than opponents of the Mavericks are averaging (37.2%).
  • Oklahoma City is 9-4 against the spread and 8-5 overall when shooting above 37.2% as a team from three-point range.
  • Dallas is 9-1 ATS and 9-1 overall in games it shoots over 34.4% from deep.
  • The Mavericks connect on 13.2 three-pointers per game this season, just 0.1 more made shots on average than the 13.1 per game the Thunder allow.
  • Dallas has gone 10-3 against the spread and 11-2 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Oklahoma City hits fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 5-9 ATS and 3-11 straight up.
  • The Thunder make the 14th-most three-pointers in the league, while the Mavericks give up the 25th-fewest makes from beyond the arc.

Mavericks vs Thunder Stat Rankings

Mavericks Rank Mavericks AVG Thunder AVG Thunder Rank
16th 112.5 Points Scored 106.7 27th
22nd 113.4 Points Allowed 112.4 18th
28th 42.6 Rebounds 44.2 13th
26th 8.4 Off. Rebounds 7.6 30th
12th 13.2 3pt Made 13.1 14th
25th 22.8 Assists 23.4 23rd
3rd 11.6 Turnovers 13.8 19th

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