Heat vs Hawks: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – March 2, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 2, 2021 - Last Updated on March 6, 2021

A game after he exploded for 34 points in a 109-99 loss to the Heat, John Collins leads the Atlanta Hawks (14-20) on the road against the Miami Heat (17-17) on Tuesday, March 2, 2021. The Hawks are underdogs by 4 points in the matchup, which begins at 7:30 PM ET on SUN. The matchup’s point total is 220.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from DraftKings sportsbook as of March 2, 2021, 7:07 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Heat vs Hawks Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of March 2

Heat:
Avery Bradley: Out (Calf),
Jimmy Butler: Day To Day (Knee),
Gabe Vincent: Day To Day (Knee),
Meyers Leonard: Out For Season (Shoulder)

Hawks:
Kevin Huerter: Day To Day (Back),
Cam Reddish: Out (Achilles),
Kris Dunn: Out (Ankle/Knee),
Bogdan Bogdanovic: Day To Day (Knee),
De’Andre Hunter: Out (Right Knee)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Heat (-4)
Total Pick Over (220.5)
Prediction Heat 113, Hawks 108

The model projects the Heat to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by slightly more points (4.8 to 4).

The DraftKings point total for this game is just 1.1 points lower than the model projection.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Heat Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Jimmy Butler 21 20.1 7.8 7.8 1.9 0.4 0.3
Bam Adebayo 32 19.5 9.7 5.5 0.9 1.1 0.1
Tyler Herro 23 16.7 5.9 3.8 0.5 0.4 2.0
Goran Dragic 20 14.9 3.1 4.9 0.6 0.1 1.7
Kendrick Nunn 26 14.6 3.4 2.8 1.1 0.3 2.2

Heat Player Props

  • Jimmy Butler’s points prop over/under for the game is set at 19.5, 0.6 points lower than his season average of 20.1.
  • Bam Adebayo’s rebounding prop total for the contest is set at 10.5 rebounds, 0.8 rebounds higher than his season average of 9.7.
  • Duncan Robinson’s three pointers made prop over/under for the contest is set at 3.5, 0.2 shots greater than his season average of 3.3.
  • Adebayo’s blocks prop total for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.4 blocks higher than his season average of 1.1.

Hawks Key Players

Name GP PTS REB ASST STL BLK 3PM
Trae Young 32 26.5 4.2 9.5 0.8 0.3 2.4
John Collins 34 18.1 7.6 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.4
De’Andre Hunter 18 17.2 5.4 2.2 0.9 0.5 1.7
Clint Capela 31 14.9 14.0 0.9 0.8 2.3 0.0
Kevin Huerter 34 11.9 3.6 3.7 1.3 0.2 2.1

Hawks Player Props

  • Trae Young’s PRA prop total for the contest is set at 42.5, 2.3 higher than his season average of 40.2.
  • Clint Capela’s rebounding prop total for the game is listed at 13.5 boards, 0.5 rebounds less than his season average of 14.0.
  • Young’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 2.5, 0.1 shots greater than his season average of 2.4.
  • Capela’s blocks prop total for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.8 blocks lower than his season average of 2.3.

Shooting Trends

  • This season, the Heat have a 46.4% shooting percentage from the field, which is the same percentage of shots the Hawks’ opponents have hit.
  • In games Miami shoots higher than 46.4% from the field, it is 9-9 against the spread and 11-7 overall.
  • Atlanta has an 11-6 record against the spread and a 12-5 record overall when allowing its opponents to hit more than 46.4% of their shots from the field.
  • The Hawks’ 45.3% shooting percentage from the field this season is 0.6 percentage points higher than the Heat have given up to their opponents (44.7%).
  • This season, Atlanta has a 13-7 record against the spread and an 11-9 record overall in games the team collectively shoots above 44.7% from the field.
  • When Miami’s opponents shoot greater than 45.3% from the field, it is 11-9 against the spread and 13-7 overall.
  • The Heat’s 35.5% three-point shooting percentage this season is just 0.7 percentage points higher than opponents of the Hawks have shot from deep (34.8%).
  • Miami has an 11-10 record against the spread and a 14-7 record overall when the team makes more than 34.8% of its three-point attempts.
  • Atlanta is 12-9 against the spread and 12-9 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 35.5% from deep.
  • The Hawks shoot 35.7% from three-point distance this season. That’s only 0.9 percentage points lower than the Heat have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (36.6%).
  • Atlanta has an 11-4 ATS record and is 10-5 straight-up when the team hits more than 36.6% of its three-point attempts.
  • Miami has a 9-9 ATS record and a 10-8 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 35.7% from three-point distance.
  • The Heat’s 13 made three-pointers per game this season are just 0.6 more made shots on average than the 12.4 per game the Hawks allow.
  • Miami has gone 6-3 against the spread and 8-1 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Atlanta makes fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 5-12 ATS and 4-13 straight up.
  • The Heat are the 15th-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Hawks give up the eighth-fewest makes from deep.

Heat vs Hawks Stat Rankings

Heat Rank Heat AVG Hawks AVG Hawks Rank
24th 107.7 Points Scored 113.1 14th
6th 109.3 Points Allowed 113.1 21st
25th 42.9 Rebounds 45.8 7th
29th 7.7 Off. Rebounds 11.4 2nd
15th 13 3pt Made 12.4 18th
9th 26.1 Assists 24.3 19th
29th 15.3 Turnovers 13.5 15th

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