The No. 18 Texas Tech Red Raiders (15-8) are at home in Big 12 action against the TCU Horned Frogs (12-10) on Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 7:00 PM ET. The Red Raiders are double-digit favorites by 12.5 points in the game, the first matchup between the teams this season. The matchup has an over/under set at 132 points.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 2, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Horned Frogs (+12.5)
The spread for this game suggested by the model (11.3 points) is a little tighter than the 12.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Red Raiders, though the data still has them as the favorite.
The model projects a total 5.9 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.
Prediction: Texas Tech 75, TCU 63
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Red Raiders’ average implied point total this season is 1.5 more points than their implied total in Tuesday’s game (73.5 implied points on average compared to 72 implied points in this game).
- This season, Texas Tech has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (72) 13 times.
- The Horned Frogs’ average implied point total on the season (72.2 points) is 12.2 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (60 points).
- TCU has scored more than 60 points in 16 games this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Texas Tech and TCU Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 12.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Red Raiders are shooting 43.5% from the field this season, 1.3 percentage points lower than the 44.8% the Horned Frogs allow to opponents.
- Texas Tech has a 7-2 straight-up record and a 3-5 record against the spread in games it shoots higher than 44.8% from the field.
- TCU is 8-2 overall and 4-5 against the spread when allowing opponents to shoot better than 43.5% from the field.
- The Horned Frogs have shot at a 44.4% clip from the field this season, 3.6 percentage points above the 40.8% shooting opponents of the Red Raiders have averaged.
- TCU is 7-5 against the spread and 8-5 overall when it shoots better than 40.8% from the field.
- Texas Tech is 13-5 overall and 7-10 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot over 44.4% from the field.
- The Red Raiders shoot 33.8% from deep, 1.8% higher than the 32% the Horned Frogs allow to opponents.
- Texas Tech has a 5-6 record against the spread and an 8-4 record overall when the team hits more than 32% of its attempts from three-point range.
- TCU has put up a 6-7 against the spread while going 9-5 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 33.8% from deep.
- The Horned Frogs shoot 35% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 0.5 percentage points higher than the Red Raiders have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (34.5%).
- TCU is 8-5 ATS and 7-6 overall when the team hits more than 34.5% of its three-point attempts.
- Texas Tech is 5-8 ATS and 10-4 overall in games when shooting above 35% from deep.
- TCU is 5-3 against the spread and 6-3 overall when it hit more three-pointers than its opponents, while Texas Tech is 3-10 ATS and 8-5 straight up in games when it is out-shot from the three-point line.
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