Bucks vs Nuggets: NBA Betting Preview, Tips and Picks – March 2, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on March 2, 2021 - Last Updated on March 5, 2021

Two of the NBA’s top scorers match up when Giannis Antetokounmpo (third, 29.2 PPG) and the Milwaukee Bucks (21-13) host Nikola Jokic (sixth, 27.1 PPG) and the Denver Nuggets (19-15) on Tuesday, March 2, 2021 at 9:00 PM ET on FS-WI. The Bucks are 6.5-point favorites. The over/under in the matchup is 236.

The betting insights in this article reflect data from William Hill sportsbook as of March 1, 2021, 4:25 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Bucks vs Nuggets Betting Odds

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Injury Report as of March 2

Jordan Nwora: Day To Day (Ankle),
Jaylen Adams: Day To Day (Health and Safety Protocols)

Gary Harris: Out (Adductor),
JaMychal Green: Out (Shoulder),
R.J. Hampton: Out (Health and safety protocols),
Markus Howard: Out (Health and safety protocols),
Paul Millsap: Out (Knee),
Facundo Campazzo: Out (Health and safety protocols)

Computer Picks

Spread Pick Nuggets (+6.5)
Total Pick Under (236)
Prediction Bucks 117, Nuggets 112

The model favors the Bucks by 4.8 points, just 1.7 fewer than the 6.5-point spread set by William Hill.

The William Hill point total for this game is just 6.8 points highter than the model projection.

Click here for today’s NBA betting picks from our team of experts.

Bucks Key Players

Giannis Antetokounmpo 33 29.2 11.8 5.9 1.2 1.4 1.2
Khris Middleton 34 20.6 6.1 5.8 1.1 0.1 2.3
Jrue Holiday 24 15.8 4.6 5.3 1.8 0.6 1.8
Bobby Portis 34 11.2 7.3 1.1 0.9 0.5 1.1
Brook Lopez 34 10.7 5.1 0.6 0.5 1.4 1.6

Bucks Player Props

  • Antetokounmpo’s PRA prop over/under for the contest is set at 49.5, 2.7 higher than his season average of 46.8.
  • Khris Middleton’s three pointers made prop total for the contest is set at 2.5, 0.2 shots greater than his season average of 2.3.
  • Brook Lopez’s blocks prop total for the game is set at 1.5, 0.1 blocks higher than his season average of 1.4.

Nuggets Key Players

Nikola Jokic 34 27.1 11.1 8.5 1.6 0.7 1.6
Jamal Murray 32 21.7 4.3 4.6 1.1 0.3 2.8
Michael Porter Jr. 24 14.4 6.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 2.3
Will Barton 31 11.4 3.9 3.1 0.8 0.4 1.5
Monte Morris 33 10.7 2.2 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.2

Nuggets Player Props

  • Jokic’s assists prop over/under for the matchup is posted at 9.5 assists, 1.0 assist higher than his season average of 8.5.
  • Jamal Murray’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 3.5, 0.7 shots higher than his season average of 2.8.
  • Jokic’s steals prop over/under for the game is set at 1.5, 0.1 steals lower than his season average of 1.6.

Shooting Trends

  • This season, the Bucks have a 48.8% shooting percentage from the field, which is 1.7% higher than the 47.1% of shots the Nuggets’ opponents have made.
  • Milwaukee is 13-9 against the spread and 16-6 overall when it shoots better than 47.1% from the field.
  • Denver is 13-10 against the spread and 17-6 overall when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 48.8% from the field.
  • The Nuggets’ 48.4% shooting percentage from the field this season is three percentage points higher than the Bucks have given up to their opponents (45.4%).
  • Denver has compiled a 13-12 record against the spread and a 16-9 straight up record in games it shoots higher than 45.4% from the field.
  • This season, Milwaukee has a 16-8 record against the spread and a 19-5 straight up record when it allows opponents to shoot over 48.4% from the field.
  • The Bucks are knocking down 39.4% of their three-point shots this season, 3.7% higher than the 35.7% the Nuggets allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Milwaukee has a 12-11 record against the spread and a 16-7 record overall when the team connects on more than 35.7% of its three-point attempts.
  • Denver is 13-10 against the spread and 17-6 overall when its opponents shoot better than 39.4% from deep.
  • The Nuggets are making 38.6% of their shots from deep, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the 37.8% the Bucks’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Denver has a 10-10 ATS record and is 11-9 straight-up when the team hits more than 37.8% of its three-point attempts.
  • Milwaukee has a 15-5 ATS record and a 17-3 straight-up record this season when it knocks down more than 38.6% of its three-point attempts.
  • The Bucks’ 14.8 made three-pointers per game this season is 1.4 more made shots on average than the 13.4 per game the Nuggets allow.
  • When Milwaukee makes more threes than its opponents, it is 11-4 against the spread and 13-2 overall. When Denver is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 5-10 ATS and 6-9 straight up.
  • The Bucks are the fifth-best three-point shooting team in the NBA, while the Nuggets allow the 14th-fewest makes from deep.

Bucks vs Nuggets Stat Rankings

Bucks Rank Bucks AVG Nuggets AVG Nuggets Rank
2nd 119.7 Points Scored 115.6 5th
16th 112.1 Points Allowed 111.2 10th
2nd 48.3 Rebounds 43.8 18th
11th 10.5 Off. Rebounds 10.2 16th
5th 14.8 3pt Made 13.4 9th
10th 26 Assists 26.3 7th
8th 12.9 Turnovers 12.8 7th

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