The Oregon Ducks (14-4) will try to extend a five-game win streak when they hit the road to take on the No. 17 USC Trojans (18-4) on Monday, February 22, 2021 at Galen Center as 4-point underdogs. The game airs at 9:00 PM ET on FS1. The matchup has an over/under of 138 points.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 22, 2021, 2:20 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The model projects the Trojans to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by a small margin more (5.2 to 4).
In this game, the model projects a total (140.3 points) a little higher than the DraftKings over/under (138 points).
Prediction: USC 73, Oregon 68
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Trojans’ average implied point total this season is 2.9 more points than their implied total in Monday’s game (73.9 implied points on average compared to 71 implied points in this game).
- USC is trying to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (71) for the 15th time this season.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Ducks (75.2) is 8.2 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (67).
- Oregon has scored more than this game’s implied total of 67 points 15 times this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
USC and Oregon Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 4+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Trojans make 46.9% of their shots from the field this season, which is 5.6 percentage points higher than the Ducks have allowed to their opponents (41.3%).
- USC is 12-5 against the spread and 15-2 overall in games when it shoots higher than 41.3% from the field.
- Oregon’s record is 7-8 against the spread and 12-4 overall when its opponents make more than 46.9% of their shots from the field.
- The Ducks are shooting 46.2% from the field, 7.7% higher than the 38.5% the Trojans’ opponents have shot this season.
- Oregon is 8-9 against the spread and 14-4 overall when shooting higher than 38.5% from the field.
- When USC’s opponents shoot higher than 46.2% from the field, it is 13-6 against the spread and 16-4 overall.
- The Trojans are hitting 34.6% of their three-point shots this season, 3.2% higher than the 31.4% the Ducks allow opponents to shoot from deep.
- USC is 13-2 overall and 11-4 against the spread when it shoots better than 31.4% from distance.
- Oregon has a 6-5 record against the spread while going 8-3 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot better than 34.6% from deep.
- The Ducks shoot 35.5% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 3.6 percentage points higher than the Trojans have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (31.9%).
- Oregon’s record is 6-5 ATS and 10-2 overall when the team makes more than 31.9% of its three-point attempts.
- USC is 12-0 overall and 10-2 ATS in games it shoots over 35.5% from deep.
- The Trojans make 6.3 three-pointers per game this season, 1.7 fewer makes per game than the Ducks give up (8).
- The Ducks are 5-5 against the spread and 9-1 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Trojans are 5-4 ATS and 8-2 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.
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