The No. 11 Iowa Hawkeyes (16-6) host the Penn State Nittany Lions (8-10) as double-digit, 11.5-point favorites after Luka Garza went off for 30 points in the Hawkeyes 77-62 victory over Wisconsin. The game airs on FS1 at 5:00 PM ET on Sunday, February 21, 2021. The point total is 157.5 for the matchup.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 21, 2021, 2:20 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Nittany Lions (+11.5)
The model and DraftKings both have the Hawkeyes taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly less (10.2 points). Lean towards taking the Nittany Lions.
In this game, the model projects a total (153.3 points) marginally lower than the DraftKings over/under (157.5 points).
Prediction: Iowa 82, Penn State 72
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Hawkeyes’ average implied point total this season is 1.9 fewer points than their implied total in Sunday’s game (83.1 implied points on average compared to 85 implied points in this game).
- Iowa has outscored this matchup’s implied point total (85) 14 times.
- The 76-point average implied total on the season for the Nittany Lions is three more points than the team’s 73-point implied total in this matchup.
- This season, Penn State has scored more than this game’s implied total of 73 points 10 times.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Iowa and Penn State Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 11.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Hawkeyes make 47.6% of their shots from the field this season, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the Nittany Lions have allowed to their opponents (46.8%).
- In games when Iowa shoots better than 46.8% from the field, it is 9-2 against the spread and 12-0 overall.
- Penn State’s record is 6-4 overall and 6-3 against the spread when its opponents make more than 47.6% of their shots from the field.
- The Nittany Lions’ 41.3% shooting percentage from the field this season is zero percentage points lower than the Hawkeyes have given up to their opponents (41.3%).
- Penn State has put together a 5-3 record against the spread and a 5-5 record overall in games when it shoots better than 41.3% from the field.
- Iowa is 5-3 against the spread and 8-1 overall in games its opponents shoot over 41.3% from the field.
- The Hawkeyes shoot 40.3% from three-point range, 7.5% higher than the 32.8% the Nittany Lions allow to opponents.
- Iowa has an 11-5 record against the spread and a 15-4 record overall when the team makes more than 32.8% of its attempts from three-point range.
- Penn State has put up an 8-5 against the spread while going 6-8 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 40.3% from downtown.
- The Nittany Lions are knocking down 34.4% of their shots from three-point distance, which is only 0.4 percentage points fewer than the 34.8% the Hawkeyes’ opponents are averaging on the season.
- Penn State’s record is 4-3 ATS and 2-6 overall when the team makes more than 34.8% of its three-point attempts.
- Iowa is 7-2 ATS and 10-1 overall in games it shoots above 34.4% from deep.
- The Hawkeyes connect on 10.2 three-pointers per game this season, 1.5 more made shots on average than the 8.7 per game the Nittany Lions allow.
- The Hawkeyes are 7-3 against the spread and 10-2 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Nittany Lions are 0-2 ATS and 2-1 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.
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