The No. 5 Illinois Fighting Illini (15-5) are 5.5-point favorites as they try to build on a six-game winning streak when they visit the Minnesota Golden Gophers (13-9) on Saturday, February 20, 2021 at Williams Arena. The game airs at 3:30 PM ET on FOX. The matchup’s over/under is set at 148.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 20, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Golden Gophers (+5.5)
The spread for this game suggested by the model (2.6 points) is a little tighter than the 5.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Fighting Illini, though the data still has them as the favorite.
The DraftKings total for this game, 148 points, and the model’s projected total, 148.7 points, are only 0.7 points apart.
Prediction: Illinois 76, Minnesota 73
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Fighting Illini have an average implied point total of 79 this season, which is two points higher than their implied total in Saturday’s game (77).
- Illinois has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (77) 13 times this season.
- The Golden Gophers’ average implied point total on the season (77.8 points) is 6.8 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (71 points).
- Minnesota is attempting to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (71) for the 15th time this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Illinois and Minnesota Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 5.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Fighting Illini make 50.3% of their shots from the field this season, which is 6.8 percentage points higher than the Golden Gophers have allowed to their opponents (43.5%).
- In games when Illinois shoots higher than 43.5% from the field, it is 14-4 overall and 10-6-1 against the spread.
- Minnesota has put together a 9-4-1 record against the spread and a 13-2 record overall when its opponents knock down more than 50.3% of their shots from the field.
- The Golden Gophers’ 40.4% shooting percentage from the field this season is 0.3 percentage points lower than the Fighting Illini have given up to their opponents (40.7%).
- This season, Minnesota has compiled an 8-2-1 record against the spread and a 12-0 record overall in games the team shoots better than 40.7% collectively from the field.
- Illinois is 7-2-1 against the spread and 9-1 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot greater than 40.4% from the field.
- The Fighting Illini’s 39% three-point shooting percentage this season is 5.4 percentage points higher than opponents of the Golden Gophers have shot from deep (33.6%).
- Illinois has collected a 12-3 straight-up record and an 8-5-1 record against the spread in games when the team connects on more than 33.6% of its three-point attempts this season.
- Minnesota has an 8-5-1 record against the spread while going 11-3 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 39% from deep.
- The Golden Gophers three-point shooting percentage this season (29.1%) is 3.7 percentage points lower than opponents of the Fighting Illini are averaging (32.8%).
- Minnesota is 5-2 straight-up and has a 4-1-1 ATS record when the team hits more than 32.8% of its three-point attempts.
- Illinois has a 6-1 straight-up record and a 5-2 ATS record when it has shot better than 29.1% from three-point range.
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