The North Carolina Tar Heels (13-7) are 5.5-point favorites as they try to build on a seven-game home win streak when they take on the Louisville Cardinals (11-4) on Saturday, February 20, 2021 at Dean E. Smith Center. The contest airs at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN. The point total for the matchup is 140.5.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 20, 2021, 2:19 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Cardinals (+5.5)

The Tar Heels are favored by both DraftKings and the model, but the model has them winning by significantly less (5.5 to 1.6 points). Take the Cardinals and the points.

Pick OU:
Under (140.5)

The model projects a total 2.3 points lower than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.

Prediction: North Carolina 70, Louisville 68

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Tar Heels’ average implied point total this season is 2.6 more points than their implied total in Saturday’s game (75.6 implied points on average compared to 73 implied points in this game).
  • This season, North Carolina has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (73) 13 times.
  • The 71.3-point average implied total on the season for the Cardinals is 3.3 more points than the team’s 68-point implied total in this matchup.
  • Louisville has totaled more than 68 points in 10 games this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

North Carolina and Louisville Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 5.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Tar Heels 8-11-1 4-3 8-12
Cardinals 7-6-1 4-1 6-8

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Tar Heels are shooting 43.3% from the field this season, 3.2 percentage points higher than the 40.1% the Cardinals allow to opponents.
  • North Carolina is 6-7-1 against the spread and 9-5 overall in games when it collectively shoots better than 40.1% from the field.
  • Louisville is 5-3-1 against the spread and 9-1 overall when allowing opponents to shoot better than 43.3% from the field.
  • The Cardinals have shot at a 45.2% rate from the field this season, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 42.7% shooting opponents of the Tar Heels have averaged.
  • Louisville is 9-2 overall and 6-4 against the spread when it makes more than 42.7% of its shots from the field.
  • North Carolina is 5-7-1 against the spread and 9-4 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot greater than 45.2% from the field.
  • The Tar Heels shoot 30.4% from beyond the arc, 0.3% lower than the 30.7% the Cardinals allow to opponents.
  • North Carolina is 3-5-1 against the spread and 6-3 overall when it shoots better than 30.7% from distance.
  • Louisville is 6-2-1 against the spread while putting up a 9-1 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 30.4% of their shots from downtown.
  • The Cardinals are making 31.8% of their shots from three-point range, which is just 4.6 percentage points fewer than the 36.4% the Tar Heels’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Louisville is 6-1 against the spread and 7-0 overall when it shoots over 36.4% as a team from deep.
  • North Carolina has a 4-0 straight-up record and a 2-1-1 ATS record this season when it knocks down more than 31.8% of its three-point attempts.
  • When Louisville makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 1-0-1 against the spread and 2-0 overall. When North Carolina is out-shot from deep by its opponents, it is 7-9-1 ATS and 11-6 straight up.

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