The No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (17-4) will look to build on a six-game winning streak when they visit the Penn State Nittany Lions (8-9) on Thursday, February 18, 2021 at Bryce Jordan Center as 5-point favorites. The matchup airs at 8:00 PM ET on BTN. The point total in the matchup is 146.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 18, 2021, 2:15 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Nittany Lions (+5)
The spread for this game suggested by the model (1.9 points) is much tighter than the 5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Buckeyes, though the data still has them as the favorite. Put your money on the Nittany Lions to cover.
DraftKings and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this contest, within 0.8 points of each other.
Prediction: Ohio State 74, Penn State 72
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The average implied total for the Buckeyes this season is 75 points, one fewer point than their implied total of 76 points in Thursday’s game.
- Ohio State has surpassed its implied point total for this matchup (76) 13 times this season.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Nittany Lions (76) is five more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (71).
- Penn State has scored more than 71 points 11 times this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Ohio State and Penn State Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Buckeyes are shooting 45.6% from the field this season, 0.7 percentage points lower than the 46.3% the Nittany Lions allow to opponents.
- In games when Ohio State shoots higher than 46.3% from the field, it is 8-2 against the spread and 12-0 overall.
- Penn State is 6-4 overall and 6-3 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot higher than 45.6% from the field.
- The Nittany Lions’ 41.1% shooting percentage from the field this season is 0.2 percentage points lower than the Buckeyes have given up to their opponents (41.3%).
- This season, Penn State has a 5-2 record against the spread and a 5-4 record overall in games the team collectively shoots over 41.3% from the field.
- Ohio State is 9-0 overall and 8-1 against the spread in games it allows opponents to shoot over 41.1% from the field.
- The Buckeyes shoot 35.5% from beyond the arc, 4% higher than the 31.5% the Nittany Lions allow to opponents.
- Ohio State has a 10-3 record against the spread and a 13-1 record overall when the team connects on more than 31.5% of its three-point shots.
- Penn State is 7-3 against the spread while putting up a 4-7 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 35.5% of their shots from beyond the arc.
- The Nittany Lions three-point shooting percentage this season (33.9%) is 0.9 percentage points higher than opponents of the Buckeyes are averaging (33%).
- Penn State has a 5-3 ATS record and has gone 4-5 straight-up when making more than 33% of its three-point attempts.
- Ohio State has an 8-2 ATS record and a 9-2 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 33.9% from downtown.
- The Nittany Lions are 8-4 against the spread and 6-7 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Buckeyes are 2-4 ATS and 5-2 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.
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