Purdue vs Michigan State: College Basketball Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – February 16, 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on February 16, 2021 - Last Updated on February 20, 2021

The Michigan State Spartans (10-8) are 5.5-point underdogs as they attempt to break a three-game road slide when they take on the Purdue Boilermakers (13-8) on Tuesday, February 16, 2021 at Mackey Arena. The matchup airs at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN. The matchup has a point total of 136.5.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 16, 2021, 2:18 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Boilermakers (-5.5)

The DraftKings line for this game has the Boilermakers favored by 5.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by considerably more (8.6 points). Put your money on the Boilermakers.

Pick OU:
Over (136.5)

The model predicts a total 3.2 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this game.

Prediction: Purdue 74, Michigan State 66

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Boilermakers this season is 72.3 points, 1.3 more points than their implied total of 71 points in Tuesday’s game.
  • This season, Purdue has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (71) 10 times.
  • The 77.9-point average implied total on the season for the Spartans is 11.9 more points than the team’s 66-point implied total in this matchup.
  • Michigan State has scored more than this game’s implied total of 66 points 11 times this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Purdue and Michigan State Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 5.5+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Boilermakers 9-8-1 2-3 9-9
Spartans 3-12 1-7 6-9

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • This season, the Boilermakers have a 44.4% shooting percentage from the field, which is 2.1% higher than the 42.3% of shots the Spartans’ opponents have knocked down.
  • Purdue has gone 9-4 overall and 7-4 against the spread when it shoots higher than 42.3% from the field.
  • Michigan State’s record is 2-5 against the spread and 8-2 overall when its opponents make more than 44.4% of their shots from the field.
  • The Spartans have shot at a 42.1% rate from the field this season, 0.2 percentage points above the 41.9% shooting opponents of the Boilermakers have averaged.
  • This season, Michigan State has a 2-5 record against the spread and an 8-1 record overall in games the team collectively shoots above 41.9% from the field.
  • Purdue is 7-0 against the spread and 9-0 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot over 42.1% from the field.
  • The Boilermakers’ 33.8% three-point shooting percentage this season is only 1.4 percentage points higher than opponents of the Spartans have shot from deep (32.4%).
  • Purdue has assembled a 4-4-1 record against the spread and an 8-2 straight-up record in games this season when hitting more than 32.4% of its three-point attempts.
  • Michigan State is 2-6 against the spread while putting up a 6-5 straight-up record when its opponents make more than 33.8% of their shots from downtown.
  • The Spartans are hitting 32.5% of their shots from three-point distance, which is just 0.2 percentage points greater than the 32.3% the Boilermakers’ opponents are averaging on the season.
  • Michigan State has a 1-4 ATS record and is 5-2 straight-up when the team hits more than 32.3% of its three-point attempts.
  • Purdue is 5-3 ATS and 7-2 overall in games it shoots above 32.5% from deep.

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