Florida State vs Virginia: College Basketball Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – February 15, 2021

Written By PlayPicks Staff on February 15, 2021 - Last Updated on February 20, 2021

The No. 9 Virginia Cavaliers (15-3) will attempt to extend a four-game winning streak when they hit the road to play the No. 17 Florida State Seminoles (11-3) on Monday, February 15, 2021 at Donald L. Tucker Center as only 2-point underdogs. The game airs at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN. The point total is 130 for the matchup.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 15, 2021, 2:19 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Seminoles (-2)

Both DraftKings and the model expect the Seminoles to walk away with the victory, but the model spread (3.1) is 1.1 points further in their direction.

Pick OU:
Over (130)

The model predicts a total (138.7 points) much higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup (130 points). Take the over.

Prediction: Florida State 71, Virginia 68

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The average implied total for the Seminoles this season is 73.2 points, 7.2 more points than their implied total of 66 points in Monday’s game.
  • Florida State has scored more than its implied point total in this matchup (66) 13 times this season.
  • The Cavaliers’ average implied point total on the season (68.5 points) is 4.5 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (64 points).
  • Virginia is trying to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (64) for the 13th time this season.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Florida State and Virginia Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 2+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Seminoles 7-6 5-5 8-4-1
Cavaliers 11-6 10-5 8-9

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Seminoles make 47.2% of their shots from the field this season, which is 6.2 percentage points higher than the Cavaliers have allowed to their opponents (41%).
  • In games when Florida State shoots higher than 41% from the field, it is 7-4 against the spread and 9-3 overall.
  • Virginia is 14-1 overall and 11-3 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot higher than 47.2% from the field.
  • The Cavaliers are shooting 49.1% from the field, 8.8% higher than the 40.3% the Seminoles’ opponents have shot this season.
  • Virginia has compiled a 10-5 record against the spread and a 14-2 straight up record in games it shoots over 40.3% from the field.
  • Florida State is 7-5 against the spread and 11-2 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot over 49.1% from the field.
  • The Seminoles are knocking down 38.6% of their three-point shots this season, 6.3% higher than the 32.3% the Cavaliers allow opponents to shoot from deep.
  • Florida State is 9-1 overall and 7-3 against the spread when it shoots better than 32.3% from distance.
  • Virginia is 10-1 against the spread and 12-0 overall when its opponents shoot better than 38.6% from deep.
  • The Cavaliers shoot 39.8% from beyond the arc this season. That’s 5.6 percentage points higher than the Seminoles have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (34.2%).
  • Virginia is 7-4 against the spread and 10-2 overall when it shoots above 34.2% as a team from deep.
  • Florida State has a 4-4 ATS record and a 6-2 straight-up record this season when it hits more than 39.8% of its three-point shots.
  • Virginia has gone 9-2 against the spread and 10-1 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When Florida State makes fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 3-3 ATS and 6-1 straight up.

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