The Vanderbilt Commodores (5-10) are 7.5-point underdogs as they look to stop a five-game road slide when they square off against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (11-10) on Saturday, February 13, 2021 at Humphrey Coliseum. The game airs at 1:00 PM ET on SECN. The matchup has an over/under of 139.5.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 13, 2021, 2:17 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The model projects the Bulldogs to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by a small margin more (9.7 to 7.5).
The model projects a total 3.2 points higher than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.
Prediction: Mississippi State 76, Vanderbilt 66
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The average implied total for the Bulldogs this season is 72.4 points, 1.6 fewer points than their implied total of 74 points in Saturday’s game.
- Mississippi State has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (74) 10 times this season.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Commodores (78.1) is 12.1 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (66).
- Vanderbilt has scored more than 66 points 12 times this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Mississippi State and Vanderbilt Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 7.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Bulldogs are shooting 45% from the field this season, 2.8 percentage points lower than the 47.8% the Commodores allow to opponents.
- In games Mississippi State shoots better than 47.8% from the field, it is 5-2 overall and 3-3 against the spread.
- Vanderbilt is 4-3 overall and 4-2-1 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot higher than 45% from the field.
- The Commodores’ 43.5% shooting percentage from the field this season is -2.4 percentage points lower than the Bulldogs have given up to their opponents (41.1%).
- Vanderbilt has an 8-2 record against the spread and a 3-7 record overall in games when it shoots higher than 41.1% from the field.
- Mississippi State is 8-6 against the spread and 10-5 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot greater than 43.5% from the field.
- The Bulldogs’ 35.8% three-point shooting percentage this season is only 0.8 percentage points lower than opponents of the Commodores have shot from beyond the arc (36.6%).
- Mississippi State is 9-2 overall and 7-4 against the spread when it shoots better than 36.6% from distance.
- Vanderbilt is 2-3-1 against the spread and 4-2 overall when its opponents shoot higher than 35.8% from deep.
- The Commodores are hitting 35% of their shots from deep, which is just 2.1 percentage points greater than the 32.9% the Bulldogs’ opponents are averaging on the season.
- Vanderbilt is 7-1-1 against the spread and 3-6 overall when it shoots above 32.9% as a team from deep.
- Mississippi State has a 7-5 straight-up record and a 7-4 ATS record when it has shot better than 35% from three-point range.
- The Bulldogs connect on 6.1 three-pointers per game this season, 3.2 fewer made shots on average than the 9.3 per game the Commodores give up.
- The Commodores are 6-3 against the spread and 4-5 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Bulldogs are 6-5 ATS and 6-6 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.
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