The No. 15 Iowa Hawkeyes (14-6) visit the Michigan State Spartans (10-7) in a matchup of Big Ten teams at Breslin Center, beginning at 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, February 13, 2021. The Hawkeyes are 4.5-point favorites in the game, the second matchup between the teams this season. The matchup has an over/under set at 152.5 points.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 13, 2021, 2:17 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Computer Picks
Pick ATS:
Hawkeyes (-4.5)
The DraftKings line for this game has the Hawkeyes favored by 4.5, while the model predicts they’ll win by slightly more (6.8 points).
Pick OU:
Under (152.5)
The model’s predicted total (151.9 points) and the DraftKings set total (152.5 points) are virtually the same for this contest.
Prediction: Iowa 79, Michigan State 73
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Hawkeyes have an average implied point total of 83.9 this season, which is 4.9 points higher than their implied total in Saturday’s game (79).
- Iowa has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (79) 15 times this season.
- The Spartans’ average implied point total on the season (77.9 points) is 3.9 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (74 points).
- Michigan State is aiming to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (74) for the ninth time this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Iowa and Michigan State Records ATS
| ATS Record | ATS Record Against 4.5+ Point Spread | Over/Under Record (O-U-P) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawkeyes | 9-8 | 8-5 | 11-6 |
| Spartans | 3-11 | 1-7 | 6-8 |
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- This season, the Hawkeyes have a 47.4% shooting percentage from the field, which is 5.6% higher than the 41.8% of shots the Spartans’ opponents have hit.
- In games when Iowa shoots better than 41.8% from the field, it is 9-5 against the spread and 14-3 overall.
- Michigan State’s record is 2-6 against the spread and 8-3 overall when it allows its opponents to make more than 47.4% of their shots from the field.
- The Spartans have shot at a 42.5% clip from the field this season, 0.3 percentage points above the 42.2% shooting opponents of the Hawkeyes have averaged.
- Michigan State has a 2-5 record against the spread and an 8-1 record overall in games when it shoots higher than 42.2% from the field.
- This season, Iowa has an 8-1 straight up record and a 5-3 record against the spread when it allows opponents to shoot over 42.5% from the field.
- The Hawkeyes are hitting 38.9% of their three-point shots this season, 8% higher than the 30.9% the Spartans allow opponents to shoot from deep.
- Iowa has assembled a 13-4 straight-up record and a 9-5 record against the spread in games when the team hits more than 30.9% of its three-point shots this season.
- Michigan State is 3-7 against the spread while putting up an 8-5 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 38.9% from three-point distance.
- The Spartans are hitting 32.7% of their shots from deep, which is just 2.2 percentage points fewer than the 34.9% the Hawkeyes’ opponents are averaging on the season.
- Michigan State has a 1-4 ATS record and is 4-2 straight-up in games when the team hits more than 34.9% of its three-point attempts.
- Iowa has a 7-1 straight-up record and a 5-1 ATS record this season when it knocks down more than 32.7% of its three-point shots.
- The Hawkeyes knock down 9.9 three-pointers per game this season, 2.6 more made shots on average than the 7.3 per game the Spartans give up.
- When Iowa makes more threes than its opponents, it is 6-3 against the spread and 9-2 overall. When Michigan State is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 1-5 ATS and 4-3 straight up.
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