Virginia vs North Carolina: College Basketball Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips – February 13, 2021

Posted By PlayPicks Staff on February 13, 2021 - Last Updated on February 17, 2021

The No. 9 Virginia Cavaliers (14-3) are favored (-6) to extend a three-game win streak when they host the North Carolina Tar Heels (12-6) at 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, February 13, 2021 at John Paul Jones Arena. The contest airs on ESPN. The over/under is 129 in the matchup.

The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 13, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Betting Odds

Computer Picks

Pick ATS:
Cavaliers (-6)

The model projects the Cavaliers to win, just as DraftKings does, but the model favors them by a small margin more (6.7 to 6).

Pick OU:
Over (129)

The DraftKings point total for this matchup is more than two possessions lower (8.2 points) than the model projection. Put your money on the over.

Prediction: Virginia 72, North Carolina 65

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Examining the Over/Under

  • The Cavaliers’ average implied point total this season is 0.5 more points than their implied total in Saturday’s game (68.5 implied points on average compared to 68 implied points in this game).
  • Virginia has scored more than its implied point total in this matchup (68) 10 times this season.
  • The Tar Heels’ average implied point total on the season (75.9 points) is 13.9 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (62 points).
  • This season, North Carolina has scored more than this game’s implied total of 62 points 17 times.

Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.

Virginia and North Carolina Records ATS

ATS Record ATS Record Against 6+ Point Spread Over/Under Record (O-U-P)
Cavaliers 10-6 8-4 8-8
Tar Heels 7-10-1 3-3 7-11

Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.

Betting Tips – Shooting Stats

  • The Cavaliers make 49.6% of their shots from the field this season, which is 6.4 percentage points higher than the Tar Heels have allowed to their opponents (43.2%).
  • In games Virginia shoots higher than 43.2% from the field, it is 14-1 overall and 10-4 against the spread.
  • North Carolina is 6-9-1 against the spread and 11-5 overall when allowing opponents to shoot better than 49.6% from the field.
  • The Tar Heels have shot at a 43.8% clip from the field this season, 2.4 percentage points above the 41.4% shooting opponents of the Cavaliers have averaged.
  • North Carolina is 5-7-1 against the spread and 8-5 overall when it shoots better than 41.4% from the field.
  • This season, Virginia has a 10-1 record against the spread and an 11-1 record overall when its opponents shoot greater than 43.8% from the field.
  • The Cavaliers shoot 39.4% from deep, 3.2% higher than the 36.2% the Tar Heels allow to opponents.
  • Virginia is 4-3 against the spread and 7-1 overall when it shoots better than 36.2% from distance.
  • North Carolina is 10-1 overall and 6-4-1 against the spread when its opponents shoot higher than 39.4% from deep.
  • The Tar Heels three-point shooting percentage this season (31.4%) is 1.8 percentage points lower than opponents of the Cavaliers are averaging (33.2%).
  • North Carolina has a 3-5-1 ATS record and is 6-3 straight-up when the team hits more than 33.2% of its three-point attempts.
  • Virginia has a 9-1 ATS record and an 11-0 straight-up record in games this season it has shot better than 31.4% from three-point range.
  • The Cavaliers make 8.9 three-pointers per game this season, 3.5 more made shots on average than the 5.4 per game the Tar Heels allow.
  • The Cavaliers are 8-2 against the spread and 9-1 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Tar Heels are 6-8-1 ATS and 10-5 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.

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