SEC foes meet when the Mississippi State Bulldogs (11-9) host the LSU Tigers (11-6) at Humphrey Coliseum, tipping off at 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, February 10, 2021. The Tigers are 1.5-point underdogs in the game, the first matchup between the teams this season. The matchup has an over/under set at 145.5 points.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 10, 2021, 2:15 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The model line and the DraftKings line are within 0.5 points of each other.
The DraftKings total for this game, 145.5 points, and the model’s projected total, 145.9 points, are only 0.4 points apart.
Prediction: Mississippi State 73, LSU 72
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Bulldogs’ average implied point total this season is 1.6 fewer points than their implied total in Wednesday’s game (72.4 implied points on average compared to 74 implied points in this game).
- Mississippi State will attempt to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (74) for the ninth time this season.
- The 81.2-point average implied total on the season for the Tigers is 9.2 more points than the team’s 72-point implied total in this matchup.
- LSU has scored more than 72 points in 14 games on the season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Mississippi State and LSU Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 1.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Bulldogs are shooting 44.6% from the field this season, 2.6 percentage points higher than the 42% the Tigers allow to opponents.
- Mississippi State has amassed a 10-3 record against the spread and an 11-3 straight-up record in games it shoots better than 42% from the field.
- LSU is 7-2 overall and 6-3 against the spread when allowing opponents to shoot better than 44.6% from the field.
- The Tigers are shooting 46.1% from the field, 6% higher than the 40.1% the Bulldogs’ opponents have shot this season.
- LSU is 11-3 overall and 6-8 against the spread when it hits more than 40.1% of its attempts from the field.
- Mississippi State is 10-6 against the spread and 11-6 overall in games it allows opponents to shoot above 46.1% from the field.
- The Bulldogs shoot 35.7% from three-point range, 5.7% higher than the 30% the Tigers allow to opponents.
- Mississippi State has collected a 9-5 straight-up record and an 8-6 record against the spread in games when the team hits more than 30% of its three-point attempts this season.
- LSU has a 6-8 record against the spread while going 10-4 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 35.7% from downtown.
- The Tigers shoot 33.7% from three-point distance this season. That’s 1.4 percentage points higher than the Bulldogs have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (32.3%).
- LSU is 10-3 overall and 6-7 against the spread when it shoots better than 32.3% as a team from three-point distance.
- Mississippi State has a 7-5 straight-up record and a 7-4 ATS record when it has shot better than 33.7% from three-point distance.
- The Bulldogs hit 6 three-pointers per game this season, 1.9 fewer made shots on average than the 7.9 per game the Tigers allow.
- The Tigers are 3-2 against the spread and 3-2 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Bulldogs are 6-4 ATS and 6-5 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.
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