The Penn State Nittany Lions (7-8) visit the Michigan State Spartans (9-7) after losing six road games in a row. The Spartans are favored by just 3 points in the contest, which begins at 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, February 9, 2021. The matchup’s point total is set at 143.5.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 9, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Nittany Lions (+3)
While DraftKings has the Spartans winning by three, the model has the Nittany Lions taking home the victory, with a considerable margin between the two spreads (5.0 points). Take the Nittany Lions.
The DraftKings point total for this game is just 2.5 points lower than the model projection.
Prediction: Penn State 74, Michigan State 72
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The average implied total for the Spartans this season is 78.1 points, 5.1 more points than their implied total of 73 points in Tuesday’s game.
- Michigan State has surpassed its implied point total for this matchup (73) nine times this season.
- The average implied point total on the season for the Nittany Lions (75.8) is 5.8 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (70).
- This season, Penn State has scored more than this game’s implied total of 70 points 11 times.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Michigan State and Penn State Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 3+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Spartans are shooting 42.5% from the field this season, four percentage points lower than the 46.5% the Nittany Lions allow to opponents.
- Michigan State is 0-5 against the spread and 6-1 overall in games when it collectively shoots better than 46.5% from the field.
- Penn State is 3-1 overall and 3-1 against the spread when allowing opponents to shoot higher than 42.5% from the field.
- The Nittany Lions’ 42.1% shooting percentage from the field this season is 0.2 percentage points lower than the Spartans have given up to their opponents (42.3%).
- Penn State has put together a 5-2 record against the spread and a 5-4 record overall in games when it shoots above 42.3% from the field.
- Michigan State is 2-4 against the spread and 7-1 overall in games its opponents shoot above 42.1% from the field.
- The Spartans are knocking down 33% of their three-point shots this season, 1.6% higher than the 31.4% the Nittany Lions allow opponents to shoot from deep.
- Michigan State has a 2-4 record against the spread and a 6-2 record overall when the team knocks down more than 31.4% of its shots from three-point range.
- Penn State is 5-3 against the spread and 4-5 overall when its opponents hit more than 33% of their shots from deep.
- The Nittany Lions three-point shooting percentage this season (34.9%) is 3.3 percentage points higher than opponents of the Spartans are averaging (31.6%).
- Penn State is 5-3 against the spread and 5-5 overall when it shoots above 31.6% as a team from deep.
- Michigan State has a 2-5 ATS record and a 5-5 straight-up record in games this season when it knocks down more than 34.9% of its three-point attempts.
- The Spartans’ 7.5 made three-pointers per game this season is 1.2 fewer made shots on average than the 8.7 per game the Nittany Lions give up.
- The Nittany Lions are 7-3 against the spread and 5-6 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Spartans are 1-4 ATS and 3-3 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.
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