Bills Vs Patriots: NFL Betting Trends, Stats And Computer Predictions – Week 18

Written By PlayPicks Staff on January 3, 2023

The Buffalo Bills (12-3) will look to extend their six-game winning run versus the New England Patriots (8-8) in Week 18. The Patriots, +330 on the moneyline to win, and the Bills, listed at -8 on the spread, kick things off on January 8, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. A total of 44 has been set for the game.

The insights in the following article reference odds valid as of January 8, 2023 at 1:48 PM ET. Head to the table below for the latest lines for this contest and get up to $1,000 Risk Free Bet at FanDuel today!

Bills Vs Patriots Odds

Computer Pick

Computer picks for Bills vs Patriots
ATS pick Over/Under pick
Bills (-8) Under (44)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Team Stat Rankings

Bills Patriots
Off. Points per Game (Rank) 28.0 (5) 21.3 (17)
Def. Points per Game (Rank) 17.5 (1) 19.5 (6)
Off. Yards per Play (Rank) 6.2 (2) 5.3 (17)
Def. Yards per Play (Rank) 5.1 (6) 5.0 (3)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank) 24 (29) 20 (12)
Turnovers Forced (Rank) 24 (6) 27 (2)

Bills Betting Insights

  • The Bills have beaten the spread seven times in 15 games.
  • Buffalo owns an ATS record of 3-4 as 8-point or greater favorites.
  • This year, five of the Bills’ 15 games have hit the over.
  • Bills games have finished with more than 44 points eight times so far this season.
  • The total for this game is 44, 4.1 points fewer than the average total in Buffalo games thus far this season (postseason included).

Patriots Betting Insights

  • Against the spread, the Patriots are 7-8-1 this year.
  • New England has covered every time (1-0) as an 8-point or greater underdog this season.
  • The Patriots have played 16 games this season, and seven of them have gone over the total.
  • New England’s games have finished with more than 44 points seven times this year.
  • Patriots games average 42.3 total points, 1.7 fewer than the total for this matchup.

Bills Players to Watch

  • Josh Allen has been a dual threat for Buffalo so far this season. He has 4,029 passing yards, completing 63.4% of his passes and collecting 32 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions this season. He’s rushed for 746 yards (49.7 ypg) on 115 carries with seven rushing touchdowns.
  • Devin Singletary has carried the ball 170 times for a team-high 790 yards on the ground and has found the end zone five times. He’s also tacked on 37 catches for 277 yards (18.5 per game) and one touchdown via the passing game.
  • Stefon Diggs’ 1,325 yards as a receiver pace the team. He’s been targeted 143 times and has totaled 101 receptions and 10 touchdowns.
  • Gabriel Davis has caught 45 passes for 797 yards (56.9 yards per game) and seven touchdowns this year.
  • Dawson Knox has hauled in 46 grabs for 504 yards, an average of 36.0 yards per game. He’s scored five times as a receiver this season.
  • Gregory Rousseau has 7.0 sacks to pace the team, and also has 8.0 TFL and 32 tackles.
  • Buffalo’s leading tackler, Tremaine Edmunds, has 97 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack this year.
  • Jordan Poyer has a team-high four interceptions to go along with 54 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and eight passes defended.

Patriots Players to Watch

  • Mac Jones has racked up 2,753 yards on 65.2% passing while recording 11 touchdown passes with eight interceptions this season.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson’s team-high 986 rushing yards have come on 204 carries, with five touchdowns. He also leads the team with 393 receiving yards (24.6 per game) on 64 catches with one touchdown.
  • Damien Harris has run for 415 yards across 93 attempts, scoring three touchdowns.
  • Hunter Henry has racked up 467 receiving yards on 35 catches to pace his team so far this season while scoring two touchdowns as a receiver.
  • DeVante Parker has 25 receptions (on 40 targets) for a total of 460 yards (38.3 yards per game) and one touchdown this year.
  • Matthew Judon has 15.5 sacks to lead the team, and also has 12.0 TFL and 55 tackles.
  • New England’s tackle leader, Ja’Whaun Bentley, has 113 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, and one interception this year.
  • Devin McCourty has a team-high three interceptions to go along with 67 tackles and six passes defended.

Best Betting Sites For Bills vs Patriots

Powered By Data Skrive using data from

PlayPicks Staff Avatar
Written by
PlayPicks Staff

PlayPicks staff has years of sports betting and DFS knowledge and we share all of that with you for free daily.

View all posts by PlayPicks Staff
Privacy Policy