The SMU Mustangs (10-4) visit the East Carolina Pirates (8-7) in a matchup of AAC teams at Minges Coliseum, beginning at 5:00 PM ET on Monday, February 8, 2021. The Pirates are 6-point underdogs in the game, the second matchup between the teams this season. The matchup has an over/under of 139 points.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 8, 2021, 2:18 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The spread for this game suggested by the model (3.7 points) is a little bit less than the 6-point edge DraftKings gives to the Mustangs, though the data still has them as the favorite.
The model projects a total 1.2 points lower than the one set by DraftKings for this game.
Prediction: SMU 71, East Carolina 67
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Mustangs’ average implied point total this season is 0.8 more points than their implied total in Monday’s game (73.8 implied points on average compared to 73 implied points in this game).
- So far this season, SMU has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (73) six times.
- The Pirates’ average implied point total on the season (72.2 points) is 5.2 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (67 points).
- East Carolina has scored more than 67 points in seven games on the season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
SMU and East Carolina Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 6+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Mustangs are shooting 46% from the field this season, 4.5 percentage points higher than the 41.5% the Pirates allow to opponents.
- SMU has a 4-5-1 record against the spread and a 9-2 straight-up record in games it shoots higher than 41.5% from the field.
- East Carolina’s record is 7-5 overall and 5-6 against the spread when its opponents make more than 46% of their shots from the field.
- The Pirates have shot at a 42.5% clip from the field this season, 2.2 percentage points higher than the 40.3% shooting opponents of the Mustangs have averaged.
- This season, East Carolina has a 5-4 record against the spread and an 8-3 record overall in games the team shoots above 40.3% collectively from the field.
- When SMU’s opponents hit better than 42.5% from the field, it is 4-4-1 against the spread and 8-2 overall.
- The Mustangs’ 35.1% three-point shooting percentage this season is 2.8 percentage points higher than opponents of the Pirates have shot from beyond the arc (32.3%).
- SMU is 8-1 overall and 4-3-1 against the spread when it shoots better than 32.3% from distance.
- East Carolina has put up a 4-3 against the spread while going 7-1 overall in games this season when its opponents shoot higher than 35.1% from deep.
- The Pirates shoot 31.9% from three-point distance this season. That’s just 2.6 percentage points lower than the Mustangs have allowed their opponents to shoot from deep (34.5%).
- East Carolina’s record is 2-3 ATS and 4-2 overall when the team makes more than 34.5% of its three-point attempts.
- SMU has a 3-1-1 ATS record and a 5-0 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 31.9% from three-point distance.
- The Mustangs hit 7.6 three-pointers per game this season, 1.5 more made shots on average than the 6.1 per game the Pirates give up.
- SMU is 4-3 against the spread and 6-1 overall when it connects on more threes than its opponents, while East Carolina is 2-7 ATS and 4-6 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.
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