The Duke Blue Devils (7-6) are slightly favored (by 3 points) to continue a four-game home win streak when they host the North Carolina Tar Heels (11-6) on Saturday, February 6, 2021 at 6:00 PM ET. The matchup’s over/under is set at 145.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 6, 2021, 2:17 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
Tar Heels (+3)
The model and DraftKings both have the Blue Devils taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly less (2.3 points). Lean towards taking the Tar Heels.
In this matchup, the model projects a total (143.7 points) marginally lower than the DraftKings over/under (145 points).
Prediction: Duke 73, North Carolina 71
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Blue Devils’ average implied point total this season is 2.6 more points than their implied total in Saturday’s game (76.6 implied points on average compared to 74 implied points in this game).
- Duke will look to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (74) for the eighth time this season.
- The Tar Heels’ average implied point total on the season (75.9 points) is 4.9 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (71 points).
- North Carolina has put up more than 71 points in 11 games on the season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Duke and North Carolina Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 3+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- This season, the Blue Devils have a 45% shooting percentage from the field, which is 2.5% higher than the 42.5% of shots the Tar Heels’ opponents have made.
- Duke is 3-5 against the spread and 7-2 overall in games when it shoots higher than 42.5% from the field.
- North Carolina is 8-3 overall and 4-6-1 against the spread when allowing its opponents to shoot higher than 45% from the field.
- The Tar Heels have shot at a 43.2% rate from the field this season, 2.5 percentage points fewer than the 45.7% shooting opponents of the Blue Devils have averaged.
- North Carolina has put together a 2-3-1 record against the spread and a 5-1 record overall in games when it shoots over 45.7% from the field.
- When Duke’s opponents hit better than 43.2% from the field, it is 2-2 against the spread and 3-1 overall.
- The Blue Devils’ 32.8% three-point shooting percentage this season is 2.9 percentage points lower than opponents of the Tar Heels have shot from beyond the arc (35.7%).
- Duke has a 1-1 record against the spread and a 3-0 record overall when the team knocks down more than 35.7% of its attempts from three-point distance.
- North Carolina has put together a 4-0 straight-up record and gone 2-1-1 against the spread in games when its opponents shoot above 32.8% from downtown.
- The Tar Heels three-point shooting percentage this season (29.6%) is 6.6 percentage points lower than opponents of the Blue Devils are averaging (36.2%).
- North Carolina is 1-4 ATS and 2-3 overall when hitting more than 36.2% of its three-point attempts.
- Duke has a 1-2 ATS record and a 2-1 straight-up record this season when it makes more than 29.6% of its three-point attempts.
- The Blue Devils knock down 7.8 three-pointers per game this season, 2.7 more makes per game than the Tar Heels give up (5.1).
- The Blue Devils are 1-4 against the spread and 3-3 overall when they make more threes than their opponents, while the Tar Heels are 5-8-1 ATS and 9-5 straight up in games when they are out-shot from the three-point line.
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