The Penn State Nittany Lions (6-8) are slightly favored (by 3 points) to extend a three-game home win streak when they host the Maryland Terrapins (9-8) on Friday, February 5, 2021 at 7:00 PM ET. The matchup’s point total is 143.5.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of February 5, 2021, 2:16 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The line for this game set by DraftKings and the model’s prediction are essentially the same (within 0.2 points of each other).
DraftKings and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this contest, within 0.4 points of each other.
Prediction: Penn State 73, Maryland 71
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Nittany Lions’ average implied point total this season is 3.1 more points than their implied total in Friday’s game (76.1 implied points on average compared to 73 implied points in this game).
- Penn State has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (73) nine times this season.
- The Terrapins’ average implied point total on the season (72.9 points) is 2.9 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (70 points).
- Maryland has put up more than 70 points eight times this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Penn State and Maryland Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 3+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Nittany Lions are shooting 42.7% from the field this season, 0.8 percentage points lower than the 43.5% the Terrapins allow to opponents.
- In games Penn State shoots higher than 43.5% from the field, it is 4-2 against the spread and 4-4 overall.
- Maryland’s record is 5-2 overall and 4-2 against the spread when its opponents make more than 42.7% of their shots from the field.
- The Terrapins have shot at a 45.4% clip from the field this season, 1.7 percentage points less than the 47.1% shooting opponents of the Nittany Lions have averaged.
- Maryland is 5-1 overall and 3-2 against the spread when it knocks down more than 47.1% of its attempts from the field.
- Penn State is 4-2 against the spread and 5-2 straight up in games when allowing opponents to shoot over 45.4% from the field.
- The Nittany Lions’ 35.8% three-point shooting percentage this season is only 0.3 percentage points higher than opponents of the Terrapins have shot from deep (35.5%).
- Penn State is 4-2 against the spread and 2-5 overall when it shoots better than 35.5% from distance.
- Maryland is 6-2 overall and 4-3 against the spread when its opponents shoot higher than 35.8% from deep.
- The Terrapins are making 35.1% of their shots from three-point range, which is just 2.9 percentage points greater than the 32.2% the Nittany Lions’ opponents are averaging on the season.
- Maryland’s record is 6-5 ATS and 8-4 overall when the team hits more than 32.2% of its three-point attempts.
- Penn State has a 5-3 ATS record and a 3-6 straight-up record this season in games it has shot better than 35.1% from three-point distance.
- When Penn State makes more three-pointers than its opponents, it is 6-3 against the spread and 4-6 overall. When Maryland is out-shot from beyond the arc by its opponents, it is 1-6 ATS and 3-5 straight up.
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