Super Bowl LV Props Picks For Bucs vs. Chiefs

Posted By Nate Weitzer on February 2, 2021

The NFL season culminates with Super Bowl LV on Sunday, Feb. 7 and there are tons of ways to win money at legal sportsbooks.

In this article, we highlight the best non-player proposition bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. These

Keep an eye on injury news right up until kick off since things can change quickly in the NFL. Please note any player listed as questionable may see limited action or not suit up at all if he doesn’t respond well in warm-ups.

Best Game Props

Team to Record First Sack (Chiefs +124 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 

The Chiefs are getting +124 odds to record the first sack at DraftKings, with the Bucs listed at -155. Tampa has an elite pass rush and recorded the fourth-most sacks (48) in the NFL this year with Todd Bowles routinely dialing up pressure. The Chiefs were around league average with 32 sacks, but have a higher sack percentage (6.5%) than the Bucs (5.2%) over their last 3 games. This bet comes down to the opposing QB in some regard and Tom Brady is completely immobile at 43 years old. Patrick Mahomes will be healthier after a couple weeks off and he’s athletic enough to escape pressure if his offensive line has a lapse, Brady is not.

First to 25 points (Chiefs -127 at FanDuel Sportsbook) 

Since the Chiefs are getting -125 odds to go Over their implied total of 29.5 points, this is a fantastic value bet. It’s not a true way to knock 4.5 points off their team total, since it wouldn’t cash if the Bucs score 25 points first. But that seems unlikely given Kansas City’s recent dominance. The Chiefs trailed, 10-0, due to a special teams gaff early in their Divisional Round game against the Browns. They also fell behind, 9-0, to the Bills, before rattling off 21 straight points. Perhaps the trend repeats and the Chiefs again fall behind early, but Mahomes can lead them right back over a larger sample of drives and get them to 25-plus points.

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Best Team Props

Bucs Under 3.5 punts (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 

This bet includes overtime, so hopefully Super Bowl LV is decided in regulation. Taking the Under doesn’t necessarily imply that the Bucs are going to struggle against the Chiefs excellent pass defense. Rather, it would bank on how aggressive Bruce Arians will be in embracing their underdog role. Tampa is 2-for-2 on 4th down conversions in the playoffs and the Chiefs allowed the third-highest fourth-down conversion rate (72%) this season while consistently struggling to stop the run. The Bucs have only punted 5 times in 3 playoff wins and will be in Four Down territory late in this game if the Chiefs are leading as expected.

Chiefs Over 5.5 Third Down Conversions (-130 at FanDuel Sportsbook) 

Mahomes and the Chiefs have the highest third-down conversion rate (49.5%) in the NFL this year and have been even better (55%) on the money down in the playoffs. Tampa is yielding a 53.9% third-down conversion rate over their last 3 games after giving up a 57% third-down conversion rate to Aaron Rodgers and company. Mahomes is also capable of executing in obvious passing situations and his supporting cast and coaching staff is far superior to what Rodgers has on the Packers.

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Best Novelty Props

Color of the Gatorade Bath (Red +250 at PointsBet) 

Along with the coin toss (-103 for either heads or tails at DraftKings), the color of the postgame Gatorade bath has become one of the most popular novelty props in the Super Bowl each year. It’s a tradition that should continue despite coronavirus concerns and the Chiefs might switch it up after using Orange Gatorade last year. Orange (+125) is the heavy favorite once again, but take a chance on KC using their own colors. They will be sporting red uniforms in Super Bowl LV.

Number of Last TD scorer (Under 24.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 

Both of the QBs and most of the WRs on both sides of the ball have numbers under 24. This bet could fail if Antonio Brown (81) or one of the Bucs TEs scores the last TD, or if Travis Kelce adds yet another TD. A rushing TD from a starting RB from either side could negate the bet, but where’s the fun in that? A “fun” Super Bowl would have one QB throwing to the final whistle and the percentages would indicate that gives a WR (or the QB himself) a better chance of being the last man to enter the end zone.

Total Number of Coaches Challenges (Over 1.5 +220 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 

Why not hope for a couple of mistakes from the Zebras? You don’t even need the coaches to get these challenges right, you just need them to take a shot by throwing that red flag. Bruce Arians loves to grumble about calls and he’s good for at least one challenge flag.

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Nate Weitzer

Nate Weitzer is a successful DFS player at DraftKings and FanDuel with numerous tournament wins in NBA and NFL contests. He's been writing about DFS for several years, specializing in NBA picks and advice while continuing to build his bankroll across the daily fantasy industry. When he's not playing DFS, Weitzer is often covering high school sports in the greater Boston area for outlets such as The Boston Globe, or playing basketball himself. Follow Nate on Twitter @Nweitzer7.

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