Super Bowl LV DFS Picks

Posted By Juan Carlos Blanco on February 1, 2021

There’s a sole game left on the 2020 NFL calendar, and with Super Bowl LV featuring a clash between the high-octane Buccaneers and Chiefs offenses, it’s a tantalizing one for DFS purposes.

The one-game slate means Super Bowl LV DFS play comes in the form of DraftKings’ Showdown or FanDuel’s Single-Game contests, which offer considerable positional flexibility as compared to standard roster construction for multi-game ledgers.

Each site offers nearly identical roster construction for this format:

One slot earns fantasy points based on that site’s format at a rate of 1.5x. On DraftKings, this site is designated as the Captain slot. On FanDuel, it’s labeled as the MVP slot.

  • DraftKings’ Showdown rosters consist of five other Flex spots, which can be filled with any skill-position player (QB, RB, WR, TE).
  • FanDuel’s Single-Game contest rosters consist of four other “AnyFlex” spots, which can be filled with any skill-position player (QB, RB, WR, TE).
  • As is the case during the regular season and earlier portions of the postseason, the salary cap for these contests is $50,000 on DraftKings and $60,000 on FanDuel. There is a notable salary difference between the MVP and Flex spots for each player on DK.

The fact one roster spot carries a 1.5x multiplier makes it the biggest strategic element in this contest type. The default conclusion might be that a quarterback is the most natural fit for that slot. Although that’s not the case in every matchup, a game featuring Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady under center certainly supports that notion.

However, there are several other appealing skill-position players that could certainly offer excellent returns on investment, particularly in as competitive a game as SB LV is projected to be. Here’s a closer look at to plays at multiple positions to consider for single-game SB LV contests on DK and FD:

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

DraftKings: $18,500 (Captain’s Spot)/ $12,000 (Flex Spot)/FanDuel: $16,500 (MVP or AnyFlex Spot)

Mahomes eviscerated the Buccaneers for 462 yards and three touchdowns back in a Week 12 win at Raymond James Stadium, and he faces a Bucs defense that gave up 283.8 passing yards per contest and 7.1 yards per attempt in eight home games this past regular season. Mahomes eclipsed 300 passing yards in nine regular-season contests before racking up 325 in the AFC Championship Game versus the Bills, and with multiple touchdown passes in 14 of his 18 total games this season and postseason, he could well prove indispensable for a tournament-winning score.

Tom Brady, Buccaneers

DraftKings: $15,000 (Captain’s Spot)/ $10,000 (Flex Spot)/FanDuel: $15,000 (MVP or AnyFlex Spot)

Brady’s SB experience is naturally unmatched by anyone else’s on the field, and he appears to be peaking within coach Bruce Arians’ aggressive downfield scheme heading into the big game. Brady threw for between 348 and 399 yards in the four games between Week 15 and the wild-card win over Washington, and he also totaled 345 with three TD passes against KC in Week 12. The Chiefs did allow the fourth-lowest completion percentage (59.4) on the road this regular season and picked off an impressive 16 passes overall. However, KC still gave up 29 passing TDs, and Brady obviously has the upside to catch fire in any game, especially if Tampa Bay is in the trail position in the second half.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs

DraftKings: $15,600 (Captain’s Spot)/ $10,400 (Flex Spot)/FanDuel: $14,000 (MVP or AnyFlex Spot)

Hill put up one of the most memorable halves for a receiver in NFL history at the expense of the Bucs in Week 12 on his way to a final tally of 13 receptions, 269 yards and three touchdowns. As already noted in Mahomes’ entry earlier, Tampa Bay struggled to defend the pass at home, with Hill’s performance certainly playing into their sub-par numbers. The Bucs also yielded 39.9 DK/31.1 FD points per contest to receivers during the regular season, along with an elevated 68.4 percent catch rate, 14.8 receptions, 170.8 receiving yards and 1.1 TDs per game. Then, Hill averaged 26.0 DK/18.8 FD points over the Chiefs’ first two postseason games and posted a 9-105 line on 16 targets in last February’s SB LIV win over the 49ers.

Travis Kelce, Chiefs

DraftKings: $16,500 (Captain’s Spot)/ $11,000 (Flex Spot)/FanDuel: $14,500 (MVP or AnyFlex Spot)

The Buccaneers allowed an 86-832-9 line to tight ends this past regular season, including eight receptions for 82 yards to Kelce in Week 12. Kelce finished off the regular season with averages of 26.2 DK/20.8 FD points over his last four contests before bumping those figures up to 33.8 and 25.6, respectively, over KC’s first two postseason games. Considering he averaged 9.7 targets per regular-season contest and has seen 12.5 per game in the postseason, Kelce certainly should have the opportunity to deliver strong returns on his elevated salaries.

Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers

DraftKings: $11,700 (Captain’s Spot)/ $7,800 (Flex Spot)/FanDuel: $12,500 (MVP or AnyFlex Spot)

Fournette has taken the reins of the Buccaneers backfield this postseason with solid results, compiling total-yardage tallies of 132, 107 and 74 with three total TDs (two rushing, one receiving). While the passing game is likely to eventually take center stage for both teams in this game, Fournette is also an excellent receiver out of the backfield and faces a KC defense that surrenders 4.5 RB yards per carry and gave up a whopping 93 receptions to RBs this past regular season. 

Chris Godwin, Buccaneers

DraftKings: $13,200 (Captain’s Spot)/$8,800 (Flex Spot)/FanDuel: $12,000 (MVP or AnyFlex Spot)

KC allowed a top-10-ranked 6.5 yards per attempt on the road and held wideouts to 12.8 yards per reception on an NFL-low 169 catches in the regular season. Nevertheless, Godwin may profile as the best matchup on the Buccaneers for how the Chiefs deploy their coverages, as he posted a 12.9 YPC, strong 77.4 percent catch rate and relatively modest aDOT of 9.6 yards this season. The fact Godwin played just 12 games in 2020 prevented him from approaching his career-best 2019 numbers, but he offered a tangible reminder of his upside with a five-catch, 110-yard effort against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game. 

Value Plays To Consider:

Antonio Brown, Buccaneers- DraftKings: $9,300 (Captain’s Spot)/$6,200 (Flex Spot)/FanDuel: $9,500 (MVP or AnyFlex Spot)

Mecole Hardman, Chiefs- DraftKings: $8,400 (Captain’s Spot)/$5,600 (Flex Spot)/ FanDuel: $7,500 (MVP or AnyFlex Spot)

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Juan Carlos Blanco

Juan Carlos Blanco has served as a freelance writer for a wide variety of online publications and websites, with an intensive focus on fantasy sports and sports betting. Juan has provided analysis and comprehensive coverage of the MLB, NBA, NFL and CFL, while also reporting on news and developments in the daily fantasy sports, online gaming and sports betting industries.

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