The No. 7 Iowa Hawkeyes (12-3) are slight underdogs (by 2 points) to build on a three-game road winning streak when they visit the No. 19 Illinois Fighting Illini (10-5) on Friday, January 29, 2021 at 9:00 PM ET. The over/under in the matchup is set at 162.5.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of January 29, 2021, 2:15 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The model has the Hawkeyes as 0.3-point favorites in this one despite the opposite prediction from DraftKings. However, the margin between the two lines is only 2.3 points.
In this game, the model projects a total (158.1 points) marginally lower than the DraftKings over/under (162.5 points).
Prediction: Iowa 80, Illinois 79
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The Fighting Illini’s average implied point total this season is 2.3 fewer points than their implied total in Friday’s game (79.7 implied points on average compared to 82 implied points in this game).
- Illinois will look to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (82) for the sixth time this season.
- The 84.8-point average implied total on the season for the Hawkeyes is 4.8 more points than the team’s 80-point implied total in this matchup.
- Iowa has scored more than 80 points in 12 games this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
Illinois and Iowa Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 2+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Fighting Illini are shooting 51% from the field this season, 9.2 percentage points higher than the 41.8% the Hawkeyes allow to opponents.
- Illinois has an 8-5-1 record against the spread and a 10-5 straight-up record in games it shoots better than 41.8% from the field.
- Iowa is 9-3 against the spread and 12-2 overall in games it allows its opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field.
- The Hawkeyes have shot at a 48.6% clip from the field this season, 7.9 percentage points greater than the 40.7% shooting opponents of the Fighting Illini have averaged.
- Iowa is 9-2 against the spread and 12-1 overall when shooting better than 40.7% from the field.
- When Illinois’ opponents hit better than 48.6% from the field, it is 7-4-1 against the spread and 9-4 overall.
- The Fighting Illini shoot 39.7% from beyond the arc, 5% higher than the 34.7% the Hawkeyes allow to opponents.
- Illinois is 6-2-1 against the spread and 8-2 overall when it shoots better than 34.7% from distance.
- Iowa is 6-2 against the spread while putting up a 9-1 straight-up record when its opponents shoot over 39.7% from beyond the arc.
- The Hawkeyes three-point shooting percentage this season (38.3%) is 4.7 percentage points higher than opponents of the Fighting Illini are averaging (33.6%).
- Iowa is 8-1 ATS and 11-0 overall when the team hits more than 33.6% of its three-point attempts.
- Illinois has a 6-1 ATS record and a 6-1 straight-up record this season when it connects on more than 38.3% of its three-point attempts.
- The Fighting Illini’s 7.6 made three-pointers per game this season is 2.5 fewer made shots on average than the 10.1 per game the Hawkeyes allow.
- Iowa is 6-1 against the spread and 8-0 overall when it connects on more three-pointers than its opponents, while Illinois is 1-4 ATS and 2-3 straight up in games when it is out-shot from distance.
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